Mnangagwa promises a lot but can he deliver?

Foreign governments, including those of the European Union and the US, have said they want to see a free and fair election and a clearer policy agenda before reinstituting support for the country, conditions that were echoed by many investors at the Harare conference.

“The first 100 days (of the new government) was a lot of talk,” said Alex Mhembere, chief executive of Zimplats Holdings, Zimbabwe’s largest platinum miner and a subsidiary of Johannesburg-based Impala Platinum Holdings, the world’s No. 2 platinum producer.

Whether Mnangagwa can win investments and debt relief could play an outsize role in the political and economic future of Zimbabwe, a commodity-rich nation turned pariah state that has been pounded by years of recession and hyperinflation.

Success could cement Mnangagwa’s position at the helm of his splintering ZANU-PF party and lure millions of skilled workers back to the country.

Failure could doom his presidency and herald another period of instability.

For years, Zimbabwe’s mining industry has suffered from underinvestment, with much of its vast mineral deposits lying unexplored.

Despite having the world’s third-largest reserves of platinum group of metals—including platinum, palladium and rhodium—Zimbabwe’s production is underperforming because of the uncertainty of policies surrounding operations in the country as well as restricted access to capital, analysts and investors say.

That may be changing.

“We’ve been absolutely bowled over by the interest we’re seeing from US institutional investors,” said Mark Learmonth, chief financial officer of Jersey-based Caledonia Mining Corporation PLC, which operates a gold mine in Zimbabwe.

Caledonia’s shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange have jumped more than 30% since mid-November when it became clear Mugabe wouldn’t remain in power.

It is a turnaround from 2008, when the company had to close its operations for several months because the government wasn’t able to pay Caledonia for the gold it delivered.

The change in government has made it easier to get investors interested in the country, Learmonth said.

The company is expanding its existing Zimbabwean mine.

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