Mnangagwa is winning the 2023 elections but they have already been discredited

A non-profit called the Zimbabwe Peace Project set up an app for citizens to report cases of violence or intimidation ahead of the election, but the scale of incidents and high likelihood of reprisal attacks mean that most violent events will likely go unreported. 

The ruling party’s attempts to suppress the opposition may trigger election-related unrest, but security forces would likely crack down on such protest activity and quickly restore public order. As in past elections, Zimbabweans fed up with voting irregularities, violence, corruption and patronage politics may take to the streets before and after the 2023 ballot to demand electoral impartiality or the release of unadulterated polling results. Many civil society groups have stated that the 2023 election will be the best chance yet to liberalize Zimbabwe’s political space in the face of growing suppression and political opposition. But this has also led to fears that more consolidated, organized resistance from opposition groups will trigger sustained unrest, with the Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe (a grouping of more than 80 Zimbabwean NGOs) warning that this year’s election could be the bloodiest in the country’s history. Widespread poverty — which has worsened in recent years amid Zimbabwe’s growing economic woes — will further increase the likelihood of such electoral unrest. Even so, protests drawing thousands of Zimbabweans are unlikely to prevent Mnangagwa from assuming a second term, as his powerful administration would almost certainly deploy security personnel and authorize them to use extreme force to dispel demonstrators. 

High poverty is a long-standing and widespread problem in Zimbabwe, but it has been exacerbated in recent years by rising inflation, high unemployment and persistent food insecurity. 

Continued corruption and mismanagement within ZANU-PF will likely worsen Zimbabwe’s economic crisis by further damaging the country’s relations with Western creditors and dampening demand for its crucial mining exports. A combination of hyperinflation, unsustainable debt levels, multiple exchange rates and high spending have kept Zimbabwe in debt default since 2000. ZANU-PF has pursued self-enrichment over economic development and is likely to continue to do so following the 2023 election. In November, Zimbabwean Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said the government is engaging with the IMF on how to clear its nearly $10 billion in arrears. However, ZANU-PF is unlikely to implement the electoral, civil and economic policy reforms required by both the IMF and Western creditors to regain access to borrowing, as few members are willing to give up the financial and social benefits of patronage and corruption. This means that Zimbabwe will remain largely reliant on domestic revenue mobilization (in addition to borrowing from non-Paris Club members like China), but falling mining sector revenue will limit its success. Since taking power, the ZANU-PF has maintained the haphazard implementation of Zimbabwe’s outdated Mines and Minerals Act, which serves the personal interests of politicians who benefit from corrupt mining deals. This – in addition to insufficient electricity supply – has hurt the competitiveness of the country’s crucial mining sector (which accounts for 60% of its exports and about 20% of its GDP). Under the ZANU-PF’s continued leadership, the mining industry will likely remain plagued with political corruption — hampering both the production of and demand for its exports and, in turn, the government’s ability to use mining revenue to pull Zimbabwe out of its economic crisis. 

Zimbabwe’s total public debt is approximately $11 billion (or 54% of GDP) of which 76% is external. Inflation averaged 213% in 2022 and the World Bank expects it to stay in triple digits in 2023. 

Poor economic conditions in Zimbabwe will sustain poverty and migration flows into neighboring South Africa, further straining relations between the two countries. Improved rainfall and reduced fertilizer prices in 2023 may boost Zimbabwe’s agricultural production and increase employment rates in the farming sector, which employs about 66% of the country’s workforce. But many Zimbabweans will likely remain in poverty, with the country’s greater economic outlook poised to worsen under ZANU-PF’s continued leadership. South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) party has said that it will not oppose Mnangagwa’s pursuit of a second term, although individual members of both the ANC and opposition parties frequently point to their northern neighbor’s poor economic conditions as justification for nationalist, populist policies at home. Zimbabweans will likely continue to illegally cross the South African border in search of better employment and economic opportunities, which will further strain relations between Harare and Pretoria and exacerbate xenophobia in South Africa. The growing exodus of skilled workers will also worsen Zimbabwe’s brain drain problem, leaving its economy all the more dependent on subsistence agriculture.

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