Mnangagwa increasingly set to take over from Mugabe

“The President has tried to prevent Mnangagwa from prevailing in the faction-fighting, carrying out various manoeuvres to maintain a balance between the rivals but the Vice-President has independent support from the securocrats of the army and police.

“Grace Mugabe is head of the ZANU-PF Women's League and can call on the loyalty of the G-40 faction, which has much to lose from a Mnangagwa presidency. Without her husband in her corner, that loyalty could evaporate.”

It adds: “So far, Mnangagwa has survived. His support comes largely from the military, which has been Mugabe's political backbone and from war veterans, who have publicly demanded that he should succeed the President.

“The leaders of liberation war veterans were sacked from the party last year but they remain influential, particularly in its rural structures, which have always been key to Mugabe's grip on power. The war veterans would use 2017 to 'mobilise for Ngwena', one of their leaders told Africa Confidential. Ngwena, or crocodile, is Mnangagwa's nom de guerre.

“Mugabe has indicated his discomfort at the military's role in propping up Mnangagwa, who has been endorsed by Harare's key ally, China. There was pressure from the G-40 to sack the army generals but Mugabe has admitted that he has kept them on due to a 'gentlemen's agreement' after they saved him from defeat in 2008.

“The military, therefore, will play a major part in the succession. They also dominate electoral bodies and other key institutions, making them potentially important in the management of national elections.”

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