Military chiefs were worried about Tsvangirai victory

Military chiefs were worried about a victory by Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai way back in 2000 because it was not clear whether he would grant them amnesty.

The worry stemmed from the fact that the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front had just lost the referendum for a new constitution, its first defeat in 20 years.

The chiefs were worried about what would happen because Tsvangirai would have a majority in parliament but President Robert Mugabe would remain at the helm of the country as he had two more years before his term expired.

Tsvangirai was an unknown quantity to them at the time and had never had any experience in government.

Besides, Tsvangirai had said he would not issue any pre-emptive pardon for Mugabe, or anyone else, if he gained control of the government.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 00HARARE1842, MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN

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PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA – BILL JEFFERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010

TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI

SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN

AFRICAN LEADER

REF: HARARE 1691 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D’AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR

REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

——-

SUMMARY

——-

¶1. (C) ZIMBABWE’S INCREASINGLY DESPERATE RULING PARTY,

ZANU-PF HAS RESORTED TO VIOLENCE, BOTH RHETORICAL AND

PHYSICAL TO COMBAT ITS ERODING POPULARITY. AS THREATS

ISSUED BY ZANU-PF ESCALATE, SO DO INCIDENTS OF

HARASSMENT AND MAYHEM AND THE DANGER THAT LESS STABLE

ELEMENTS IN ZANU-PF WILL INTERPRET THEM AS A GREEN LIGHT

FOR ANYTHING GOES. ONE POLICEMAN WAS KILLED APRIL 3 ON

A FARM OCCUPIED BY WAR VETERANS, WHOSE OWNER WAS

SEVERELY BEATEN. THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED PRESS HAS

COLLABORATED IN THE GOVERNMENT’S EFFORT TO SOW CONFUSION

AND, SOME OBSERVERS SPECULATE, SET THE STAGE FOR A

CRACKDOWN OR EVEN A STATE OF EMERGENCY. THE MILITARY

AND SECURITY FORCES WILL BE THE FINAL ARBITERS OF THE

TRANSITION. IN THE EYE OF THE STORM IS ROBERT MUGABE,

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PAGE 03       HARARE 01842 01 OF 04 061031Z

WHOM ARCHBISHOP TUTU RECENTLY DUBBED A CARICATURE OF AN

AFRICAN LEADER. THE PRESIDENT SINCERELY BELIEVES THE

BRITISH, ZIMBABWEAN WHITES AND THE WEST IN GENERAL ARE

TO BLAME FOR HIS SETBACKS DUE TO THEIR COLLUSIVE,

TARGETED EFFORTS. HE SEEMS SERENELY UNAWARE OF THE

SERIOUSNESS OF THE SITUATION OF HIS PARTY AND COUNTRY.

WHILE SOME SORT OF BRIDGE BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND

OPPOSITION NEEDS TO BE BUILT, IT IS IMPROBABLE THAT THAT

CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED PRIOR TO THE ELECTION. MUGABE MAY

WELCOME A VISIT BY A SENIOR AMERICAN OFFICIAL WHOSE

PRIVATE MESSAGE WOULD BE ONE OF RESTRAINT. AT THE SAME

TIME WE MUST WORK WITH THE SOUTH AFRICANS, WHO SET THE

STANDARD FOR PEACEFUL TRANSITION IN AFRICA, AND THE

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS SECTOR TO PRESS FOR DOMESTIC

ORDER AND A PEACEFUL WAY FORWARD IN ZIMBABWE. END

COMMENT.

————————–

NO CONCERN FOR APPEARANCES

————————–

¶2. (U) SADLY, THE MAN OF THE CLOTH GOT IT RIGHT.

THINGS HAVE PROGRESSED TO SUCH A STATE IN ZIMBABWE THAT

ARCHBISHOP DESMOND TUTU IN UPPSALA, SWEDEN, ON APRIL 4

FOUND HIMSELF REFERRING TO PRESIDENT MUGABE AS A

“CARICATURE.” “HE’S ALMOST A CARICATURE OF ALL THINGS

PEOPLE THINK BLACK AFRICAN LEADERS DO. HE SEEMS TO BE

WANTING TO MAKE A CARTOON OF HIMSELF,” THE SOUTH AFRICAN

ANGLICAN ARCHBISHOP SAID. TUTU MADE HIS OBSERVATION IN

RESPONSE TO SWEDISH PRESS REPORTS THAT MUGABE, ONCE A

GREAT IDEALIST, AT THE INAUGURATION OF A WATER PROJECT

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PAGE 04       HARARE 01842 01 OF 04 061031Z

FUNDED BY THE SWEDISH AID AGENCY SAID DEATH WOULD BEFALL

THOSE WHO OPPOSED ZANU-PF. “I THINK HE’S BECOME

INCREASINGLY INSECURE, AND BECAUSE HE’S INSECURE HE’S

HITTING OUT,” THE ARCHBISHOP SUMMARIZED.

¶3. (SBU) MUGABE IS JOINED BY SUPPORTERS WHO NO LONGER

SEEM TO CARE ABOUT THEIR INTERNATIONAL IMAGE,

PARTICULARLY AS THEY ABSORB MORE INTELLIGENCE THAT THEIR

SUPPORT BASE IS ERODING. ON APRIL 1 “LIBERATION WAR

VETERANS” (APPARENTLY MOSTLY YOUNG, UNEMPLOYED, PAID

ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS) ATTACKED UNARMED PEACE MARCHERS IN

DOWNTOWN HARARE, TARGETING SEVERAL WHITE SUPPORTERS OF

THE OPPOSITION FOR VIOLENCE. SEVERAL NCA ACTIVISTS WERE

ARRESTED FOR FAILING TO DISPERSE, DESPITE THE FACT THAT

THEY HAD A COURT ORDER ALLOWING THE “PEACE MARCH.”

POLICE DETAINED THEM OVER THE WEEKEND, AND HAULED THEM

ON APRIL 3 BEFORE A JUDGE, WHO RELEASED THEM. IT IS

UNCLEAR WHETHER CHARGES HAVE BEEN DROPPED, HOWEVER.

¶4. (SBU) AT THE SAME TIME THE LEADERSHIP IS LOSING ITS

COMPOSURE. ON APRIL 2, IN AN EVENT RETURNING PROPERTY

BELONGING TO ZIPRA EX-COMBATANTS, VICE PRESIDENT JOSEPH

MSIKA SAID IN NDEBELE SOMETHING TO THE EFFECT THAT THE

OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) LEADER

MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, WHOM HE DESCRIBED IN THE FOULEST

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O 061037Z APR 00

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PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA – BILL JEFFERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010

TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI

SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN

AFRICAN LEADER

LANGUAGE, WOULD WREST POWER FROM ZANU-PF “ONLY OVER OUR

DEAD BODIES.” SIMILARLY, MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS

DUMISO DABENGWA, NORMALLY IDENTIFIED WITH ZANU-PF’S

MODERATE WING, MADE HARD-LINE NOISES IN THE PRESS APRIL

5, SAYING THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAD LEARNED THAT THE MDC

HAD WORKED OUT A STRATEGY TO CREATE ANARCHY IN THE

COUNTRY TO FORCE THE GOVERNMENT TO CANCEL THE

FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS. HE ADDED THAT VARIOUS STRICT

MEASURES TO COPE WITH PUBLIC DEMONSTRATIONS UNTIL THE

ELECTIONS ARE OVER WERE BEING CONTEMPLATED. MANY FEEL

THESE STATEMENTS ARE A PRECURSOR TO DECLARING A STATE OF

EMERGENCY.

——————————–

ACTS OF VIOLENCE ON THE INCREASE

——————————–

¶5. (C) WAR VETERANS OCCUPYING A FARM IN MARONDERA

SEVERELY BEAT ITS OWNER AND SHOT AND KILLED A POLICEMAN

ON APRIL 4, ALLEGEDLY BECAUSE THE LAW ENFORCEMENT

OFFICER WAS AN MDC SUPPORTER. THREE MEN WERE ARRESTED

BUT THEIR NAMES WERE NOT DIVULGED, A FACT THAT SUGGESTS

THEY WILL BE RELEASED QUICKLY. THAT SAME DAY, THE

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PAGE 03       HARARE 01842 02 OF 04 061031Z

ZIMBABWE BROADCASTING SERVICE GAVE CHARLES NDLOVU, WHO

EARLIER HAD PROCLAIMED IN THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED

PRESS THAT THERE WOULD BE CIVIL WAR IF ZANU-PF DID NOT

WIN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, A LENGTHY LARRY KING-

LIKE INTERVIEW SLOT, AS THOUGH HE WERE A HIGHLY REGARDED

OPINION MAKER. FROM HIS BULLY PULPIT NDLOVU ISSUED A

STREAM OF INVECTIVE AGAINST JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING AND

EVERYONE, BLAMING THE MDC MARCH PARTICIPANTS FOR

STARTING THE VIOLENCE ON APRIL 1. ONE MIGHT SURMISE

THAT BY ESCALATING THE RHETORIC MEANT TO BRING RACIAL

TENSION TO AN ALL TIME HIGH IN ZIMBABWE, THE PRESIDENT

IS GIVING ANTI-SOCIAL ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS WITH A LESS

THAN SOLID GRIP ON REALITY LICENSE TO KILL.

¶6. (C) MEANWHILE, A NUMBER OF MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT,

ONCE MUGABE’S BLINDLY LOYAL SUPPORTERS, WILL NOT BE

RETURNING, HAVING LOST THEIR BID FOR SEATS IN PARTY

PRIMARY ELECTIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MANIPULATION AND

OUTRIGHT VOTE BUYING. AT LEAST FIVE ZANU-PF MEMBERS

WILL BE RUNNING IN THEIR OLD DISTRICTS AS INDEPENDENTS,

A FACT THAT SUGGESTS THAT THE PARTY ITSELF IS

FRAGMENTING. WITH SUCH A NUMBER OF DISGRUNTLED ELEMENTS

THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT ZANU-PF MAY NOT

MARSHAL THE 100 VOTES IT NEEDS TO PROMULGATE THE

CONSTITUTION’S SIXTEENTH AMENDMENT. MINISTER OF

JUSTICE, LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON

MNANGAGWA TOLD DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY WITNEY

SCHNEIDMAN ON MARCH 23 THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL USE

ADOPTION OF THE AMENDMENT TO CONVINCE THE WAR VETERANS

TO MOVE OFF THE FARMS. THE MINISTER ADDED THAT THE

VETERANS’ OBEDIENCE WOULD BE AUTOMATIC. CONTACTED FOR

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PAGE 04       HARARE 01842 02 OF 04 061031Z

COMMENT APRIL 6, THE DIRECTOR OF THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL

LIBERATION VETERAN’S ASSOCIATION, AGRIPPA GAVA, TOLD

EMBASSY’S POLITICAL ASSISTANT THAT IT’S NOT A QUESTION

OF THE AMENDMENT BECOMING LAW OR THE BRITISH PAYING FOR

LAND, “WE ARE NEVER MOVING OUT!”

————————

LAND CLAUSE MAY NOT PASS

————————

¶7. (C) IF THE AMENDMENT DOES NOT PASS WE FORESEE THE

WAR VETERANS/ZANU-PF YOUTH GOING ON A RAMPAGE, SMASHING

WINDOWS OF WHITE-OWNED SHOPS AND BLAMING THE OPPOSITION

FOR THE VIOLENCE. WE IMAGINE THAT THE NEXT STEP IN THIS

SCENARIO WOULD SEE PRESIDENT MUGABE ORDER THE ARREST OF

A NUMBER OF OPPOSITION FIGURES, INCLUDING MORGAN

TSVANGIRAI. ADDING TO THE PLAUSIBILITY OF THIS SCRIPT

SIPDIS

IS THE FACT THAT THERE ARE ALREADY PUBLIC ALLEGATIONS

THAT TSVANGIRAI HAS MISAPPROPRIATED ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF

TRADE UNIONS FUNDS WHEN HE SERVED AS SECRETARY GENERAL,

WHICH ALSO MIGHT CREATE A PRETEXT FOR ARRESTING HIM ON

FRAUD CHARGES, AND ULTIMATELY DISQUALIFYING THE MDC

PRESIDENT FROM RUNNING FOR A PARLIAMENTARY SEAT. MUGABE

THEN MIGHT APPEAR ON NATIONAL TELEVISION TO MAKE A

DISTINCTLY LESS PRESIDENTIAL SPEECH THAN WHEN HE

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O 061037Z APR 00

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5672

INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

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PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA – BILL JEFFERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010

TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI

SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN

AFRICAN LEADER

CONCEDED LOSING THE CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM, CALLING

THE MDC PUPPETS OF THE WHITES CONSPIRING TO BRING DOWN

THE NATION, AND BLAMING DEFEAT OF THE AMENDMENT ON AN

UNHOLY WESTERN/MDC ALLIANCE.

———————

TAKING OFF THE GLOVES

———————

¶8. (C) THE DEGREE OF THE RULING PARTY’S DESPERATION

ALSO CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICIOUSNESS OF THE GOVERNMENT-

CONTROLLED PRESS. ON APRIL 4 “THE HERALD” NEWSPAPER

PRINTED AN ARTICLE BASED ON AN UNCLEARED, BOOTLEG COPY

OF A UNDP REPORT TO ATTACK THE WORLD BANK AND THE

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND FOR ADVOCATING OPEN MARKETS

FOR A ZIMBABWE UNPREPARED TO COPE WITH IT. ON APRIL 5

THE HERALD PRINTED AN ARTICLE CLAIMING THE BRITISH HAD

CAPITULATED TO ALL PRESIDENT MUGABE’S DEMANDS AND WERE

NOW PREPARING TO FUND HIS RESETTLEMENT SCHEME. THE

INTENT HERE APPEARS TO BE TO SOW CONFUSION AND DIVIDE

PUBLIC OPINION. ALTERNATIVELY, THE GOVERNMENT STRATEGY

MAY BE TO SHOW THAT THE COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS ARE

PAYING OFF WITH THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT YIELDING TO THE

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PRESSURE TO SUPPORT LAND REDISTRIBUTION, IN ADVANCE OF

THE GOVERNMENT’S ANTICIPATED ADOPTION OF AMENDMENT

NUMBER 16 TO ALLOW FOR LAND EXPROPRIATION.

—————————————–

THE SECURITY FORCES AS ARBITERS OF EVENTS

—————————————–

¶9. (C) WHERE THINGS WILL GO DEPENDS ON THE SECURITY

FORCES, AND WHETHER THEY WILL OBEY ORDERS TO INSTITUTE

MARTIAL LAW OR A STATE OF EMERGENCY WHEN THE PRESIDENT

DECIDES THE COUNTRY HAS BECOME OTHERWISE UNGOVERNABLE.

AT THE MOMENT WE HAVE INDICATIONS THAT BOTH THE ARMY AND

ESPECIALLY THE POLICE HAVE A NUMBER OF MDC SUPPORTERS.

INDEED, THE POOR POLICEMAN WHO MADE THE ULTIMATE

SACRIFICE ON A MARONDERA FARM WAS KILLED BECAUSE THE WAR

VETERANS THOUGHT THAT WAS WHERE HIS SYMPATHIES LAID.

THE 13,000 OR SO TROOPS IN THE CONGO HAVE HAD THEIR PER

DIEMS CUT, AND TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY THEY HAVE NOT

BEEN PAID IN FOUR MONTHS. WE THINK THAT WHILE THE

PRESIDENT SINCERELY WISHES TO BRING THE TROOPS HOME

BECAUSE OF DIMINISHING RETURNS AND THE COST TO THE

COUNTRY, THIS IS NOT THE MOMENT TO DO SO. HE DOES NOT

WANT A NUMBER OF DISGRUNTLED (AND PROBABLY UNEMPLOYED)

MEN BACK IN ZIMBABWE TO SWELL THE RANKS OF THE

OPPOSITION.

¶10. (C) SENIOR MILITARY FIGURES ARE WORRIED ABOUT

MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WINNING OVER 76 SEATS IN PARLIAMENT,

THE MAJORITY. UNLIKE PRESIDENT WADE IN SENEGAL,

TSVANGIRAI WAS NEVER PART OF THE GOVERNMENT AND IS

SIPDIS

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PAGE 04       HARARE 01842 03 OF 04 061031Z

THEREFORE NOT A KNOWN QUANTITY TO THEM. THE MDC LEADER

ALSO HAS MADE IT CLEAR HE WILL ISSUE NO PRE-EMPTIVE

PARDON FOR PRESIDENT MUGABE (OR ANYONE ELSE) SHOULD HIS

PARTY GAIN CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT, AS WADE DID FOR

EXITING PRESIDENT DIOUF. AT THIS WRITING IT IS

DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE TSVANGIRAI MUSTERING THE GRACE TO

ASK ROBERT MUGABE TO REPRESENT HIM AT AN EVENT AS

PRESTIGIOUS AS THE EU-AFRICA SUMMIT IN CAIRO. WHILE WE

HAVE HEARD THAT SENIOR MILITARY FIGURES, FOR EXAMPLE,

DEFENSE FORCE COMMANDER VITALIS ZVINAVASHE, HAVE EITHER

MET OR SENT RUNNERS TO TSVANGIRAI, WE SEE NO EVIDENCE

THAT THESE CONTACTS HAVE BORNE FRUIT OR IMPROVED THEIR

MUTUAL DISPOSITION. IT’S CLEAR THAT WHAT IS MISSING IS

SOME SORT OF BRIDGE THAT SPANS THE GULF OF DISTRUST AND

ALLEGIANCES BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES. MUGABE IS NO DIOUF,

AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER SUCH A BRIDGE CAN BE

BUILT.

¶11. (C) FINALLY, WE ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED MUGABE

IS READING THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY CORRECTLY. IN

THE PRESIDENT’S ANALYSIS, THE BRITISH, ZIMBABWEAN WHITES

AND THE WEST HAVE MASTERMINDED ALL THE RECENT REVERSES

HE HAS SUFFERED BECAUSE HE IS A PRINCIPLED MAN WHO

STANDS FOR SOMETHING. MUGABE REMAINS DETACHED AND ALOOF

FROM THE PROBLEMS OF THE COUNTRY, MOST RECENTLY JETTING

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O 061037Z APR 00

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TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5673

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SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN

AFRICAN LEADER

OFF TO EGYPT TO ATTEND THE EU-AFRICA SUMMIT, INSTEAD OF

SUPERVISING PARTY MEETINGS OR ORGANIZING CAMPAIGN

EFFORTS. INSTEAD, HE APPEARS TO BELIEVE THAT

INTIMIDATION AND FIGHTING WILL SOLVE HIS PROBLEMS. HE

HAS GIVEN THE WAR VETERANS VERY LOOSE REINS TO EXECUTE

HIS GRAB BAG OF DIRTY TRICKS, AND GIVEN THEM MORE COVER

AND PROTECTION THAN WE EVER EXPECTED. AT THE SAME TIME,

WE THINK HE UNDERESTIMATES JUST HOW DIFFICULT IT WILL BE

TO MANAGE THE SITUATION HE HAS CREATED AND RESTORE LAW

AND ORDER IN ZIMBABWE.

—————

RECOMMENDATIONS

—————

¶12. (C) UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, OUR ABILITY TO

INFLUENCE EVENTS IS VERY LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS, WE

BELIEVE MUGABE IS LIKELY TO LISTEN, AND PERHAPS HEED,

PRIVATE MESSAGES OF RESTRAINT FROM SENIOR USG OFFICIALS

IN THE RUN-UP TO AND AFTER THE ELECTION, PARTICULARLY IF

THESE MEETINGS ARE CAST AS “CONSULTATIONS” WITH THE

ZIMBABWEAN HEAD OF STATE. WE HAVE BEEN URGED TO REMAIN

ENGAGED WITH MUGABE AND HIS GOVERNMENT BY PEOPLE BOTH

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INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE RULING PARTY, WHO SENSE THAT THE

GOVERNMENT WILL ONLY BECOME MORE REPRESSIVE IF IT

PERCEIVES ITSELF AS UNDER ATTACK FROM THE WEST. A

SECONDARY MESSAGE OUR SENIOR OFFICIAL MIGHT DELIVER IS

THAT ZIMBABWE HAS INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS IN THE DROC,

WHICH IT RECONFIRMED IN NEW YORK IN JANUARY, AND IN THE

SOUTHERN AFRICAN SUB-CONTINENT, WHICH ITS VOLATILE

DOMESTIC POLITICS ARE HINDERING. WE SHOULD URGE

ZIMBABWE AT EVERY LEVEL TO GET ITS HOUSE IN ORDER

THROUGH PEACEFUL, DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS, AND GET BACK ON

TRACK WITH THE PEACE PROCESS. AN EARLY VISIT TO

ZIMBABWE BY A SENIOR AMERICAN OFFICIAL WOULD BE HELPFUL.

¶13. (C) IN ADDITION TO THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP,

THERE ARE OTHER AVENUES OF COMMUNICATION AND INFLUENCE

THAT WE COULD DRAW UPON. FROM MULTIPLE POINTS, THE USG

COULD PRESS THE SOUTH AFRICANS, BOTH IN GOVERNMENT AND

THE PRIVATE SECTOR, TO DIALOGUE WITH THEIR ZIMBABWEAN

COUNTERPARTS. THE SOUTH AFRICANS EXECUTED A MODEL FOR

PEACEFUL TRANSITION IN AFRICA AND HAVE A LOT TO

CONTRIBUTE TO RETURNING DOMESTIC ORDER AND A WAY FORWARD

TO ZIMBABWE. AT THE SAME TIME WE COULD MORE PRO-

ACTIVELY ENGAGE MULTINATIONAL BUSINESSES ESTABLISHED IN

ZIMBABWE TO RAISE THEIR CONCERNS WITH THE ZIMBABWEAN

GOVERNMENT AND THE OPPOSITION. THOUGH TO DATE THE

PRIVATE SECTOR’S DEGREE OF INFLUENCE WITH THE GOVERNMENT

HAS BEEN SECONDARY, THE JOBS, TAXES AND UNDERPINNING

THEY PROVIDE ARGUE FOR A MORE VISIBLE SEAT AT THE TABLE.

IRVING

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