Mbeki gave Mugabe three options before 2008 elections

South African President Thabo Mbeki was still frantically working on a political solution for Zimbabwe two months before the harmonised elections of 2008 and gave the negotiating parties three options.

According to Movement for Democratic Change treasurer Roy Bennett and Idasa analyst Sydney Masamvu Mbeki had presented the MDC and the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front three options to break the deadlock:

• Hold a referendum on a new constitution in February, followed by “free and fair” elections in March;
• Hold a referendum on a constitution first, and delay the elections to a later date (likely June/July); or
• Pass an interim constitution in parliament (without a referendum), delay elections (likely June/July), then hold a constitutional referendum.

Bennett and Masamvu said if Mugabe did not agree to one of these three options, Mbeki would report to SADC that he was not cooperating with the facilitation.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 08PRETORIA100, MBEKI TO VISIT ZIMBABWE IN EFFORT TO CONCLUDE SADC

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SIPDIS

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DEPT FOR AF/S

HARARE FOR G. WARREN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2018

TAGS: PREL ZI SF

SUBJECT: MBEKI TO VISIT ZIMBABWE IN EFFORT TO CONCLUDE SADC

TALKS

REF: HARARE 0016

Classified By: Ambassador Eric M. Bost. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

¶1. (C) South African President Thabo Mbeki will visit

Zimbabwe January 17-18 in an effort to conclude the SADC

political facilitation, according to Movement for Democratic

Change (MDC) Treasurer Roy Bennett and U.K. diplomats. Mbeki

met with the key negotiators for the MDC and ZANU-PF in

Pretoria o/a January 14-15, and told them the negotiation

deadlock was “unacceptable.” (NOTE: Per reftel, the parties

are reportedly deadlocked over the timing of the elections

and implementation of a constitution. END NOTE.)

¶2. (C) According to Bennett and IDASA analyst Sydney Masamvu

(who spoke with MDC SecGen Tendai Biti), Mbeki presented the

MDC and ZANU-PF with three options to break the deadlock:

— Hold a referendum on a new constitution in February,

followed by “free and fair” elections in March;

— Hold a referendum on a constitution first, and delay the

elections to a later date (likely June/July); or

— Pass an interim constitution in parliament (without a

referendum), delay elections (likely June/July), then hold a

constitutional referendum.

Bennett noted that the MDC would prefer the second option,

whereas ZANU-PF would likely favor the first. However,

ZANU-PF would take a significant risk with the first option,

since the constitutional referendum could build momentum for

the MDC and help level the playing field for the elections

(although time is short). Masamvu said the first option was

meant to force Mugabe’s hand if he insisted on a March

election date.

¶3. (C) If Mugabe does not agree to one of these three

options, Mbeki would report to SADC that he is not

cooperating with the facilitation, according to Bennett and

Masamvu.

¶4. (U) Separately, Irish PM Ahern met with President Mbeki in

Pretoria on January 15. Ahern said in a press conference on

the 15th, which Mbeki did not attend, that South Africa was

“engaged in some of the final aspects” of the SADC

negotiations. Mbeki “is working very hard on this and is

hopeful that he will resolve some of the remaining

obstacles,” Ahern claimed.

¶5. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Harare.

BOST

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