Masiyiwa drafted power sharing agreement which Mugabe accepted!

Exiled Zimbabwean businessman Strive Masiyiwa drafted a power-sharing agreement under which Zimbabwe would have adopted the 1980 constitution which would have seen Robert Mugabe become ceremonial president while Morgan Tsvangirai became executive prime minister.

According to a diplomatic cable just released by Wikileaks, Mugabe had accepted the agreement in principle but wanted an indefinite term of office.

The cable says Masiyiwa met United States embassy officials on 24 July 2008 and told them that the power-sharing agreement would be signed in two weeks.

Under Masiyiwa’s agreement ZANU-PF and the MDC were each to appoint one Deputy Prime Minister. ZANU-PF’s Deputy Prime Minister would be in charge of defense, and the MDC’s would head home affairs.

The Prime Minister, the deputies, and an additional ZANU-PF minister would constitute a national security council to which the Central Intelligence Organization would report.

ZANU-PF was to select eight ministers, MDC-Tsvangirai another eight ministers, and MDC Mutambara one.

The parties were to select five independent ministers to head the ministries of finance, justice, land resettlement, agriculture, and state enterprises.

Masiyiwa, who was described as the unofficial advisor of the MDC, said the only resistance to the plan that he expected was likely to be from South African President Thabo Mbeki and ZANU-PF politburo member Emmerson Mnangagwa.

The power-sharing agreement was, however, only signed in September with Mugabe remaining executive president and Tsvangirai Prime Minister. ZANU-PF ended up with 15 ministers, MDC-T 13 and Mutambara three.

When the inclusive government was sworn in in February 2009, there were 10 more ministers than the 31 agreed in September.

 

Full cable:

 

Viewing cable 08PRETORIA1632, MASIYIWA FLOATS MDC-ZANU-PF POWER-SHARING AGREEMENT

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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
08PRETORIA1632	2008-07-25 12:40	2011-08-30 01:44	CONFIDENTIAL	Embassy Pretoria

VZCZCXRO6176

RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO

DE RUEHSA #1632/01 2071240

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

R 251240Z JUL 08

FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5201

INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE

RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1564

RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1405

RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0020

RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5847

RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001632

 

SIPDIS

 

DEPT FOR AF, AF/S

DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USAID/AFR

 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2018

TAGS: PREL KDEM ZI SF

SUBJECT: MASIYIWA FLOATS MDC-ZANU-PF POWER-SHARING AGREEMENT

 

PRETORIA 00001632 001.2 OF 002

 

 

Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Raymond L. Brown. Reason

s 1.4(b) and (d).

 

¶1. (C) SUMMARY. South African businessman and unofficial

MDC advisor Strive Masiyiwa told Harare PolEconChief and

Pretoria PolOffs July 24 that he believed a power sharing

agreement would be signed between ZANU-PF and the MDC within

two weeks. Masiyiwa has drafted a proposed agreement under

which Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe would remain as

ceremonial president. MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai would

become Prime Minister, and there would be a division of

government ministries. According to Masiyiwa, the draft was

presented to Mugabe who approved it in principle. Masiyiwa

is concerned, however, that South African President Thabo

Mbeki may attempt to impose his own agreement which would be

more advantageous to ZANU-PF. He urged the U.S. and EU to

impress upon South Africa the importance of reaching a

“quality” agreement that would satisfy criteria for

reengagement. END SUMMARY.

 

————————–

Masiyiwa’s Draft Agreement

————————–

 

¶2. (C) Under Masiyiwa’s agreement, the 1980 Zimbabwean

Constitution would be used as a basis for constituting

power-sharing transitional government with a life of two

years. Mugabe would become head of state (ceremonial) and

Tsvangirai would be head of government as Prime Minister.

ZANU-PF and the MDC would each appoint one Deputy Prime

Minister. ZANU-PF’s Deputy Prime Minister would be in charge

of defense, and the MDC’s would head home affairs (police).

The Prime Minister, the Deputies, and an additional ZANU-PF

minister would constitute a national security council to

which the Central Intelligence Organization would report.

Additionally, ZANU-PF would select eight ministers, MDC

Tsvangirai would select eight ministers, and MDC Mutambara

would select one. The parties would select five independent

ministers, presumably technocrats, to head the Ministries of

Finance, Justice, Land Resettlement, Agriculture, and State

Enterprises (parastatals). (A copy of the agreement sent to

AF/S and Embassy Harare.)

 

————————

MDC and ZANU-PF Reaction

————————

 

¶3. (C) According to Masiyiwa, Tsvangirai supported the

agreement. Masiyiwa also said that an intermediary had

presented the draft agreement to Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe

Governor Gideon Gono who had in turn presented it to Mugabe.

Gono told the intermediary that he had discussed it with

Mugabe and Mugabe’s wife, Grace. Both Mugabe and Grace

reportedly were agreeable to the agreement with several

amendments, including that Mugabe would be allowed to serve

as President indefinitely and would not have to retire at a

certain time.

 

¶4. (C) Masiyiwa thought Mugabe was willing to enter into an

agreement which ended ZANU-PF power because Gono had

convinced him the economy was almost beyond repair and

something had to be done. Also, Mugabe had been stung by

African criticism; he could no longer claim it was only the

West that was opposed to him. He therefore felt it necessary

to bring an end to the crisis that would win support from the

region and staunch his growing isolation.

 

¶5. (C) Although the military was not part of the

negotiations, Masiyiwa thought that Mugabe was still in

control of the government and could win military support for

Qcontrol of the government and could win military support for

an agreement, as long as an amnesty provision was included to

protect them from possible prosecution. Masiyiwa was

concerned that Emmerson Mnangagwa would resist an agreement,

but thought that if an agreement appeared likely Mnangagwa

would angle for a significant position in the new government.

 

——————————————-

South African and Pressure for an Agreement

——————————————-

 

¶6. (C) Masiyiwa said Mbeki was anxious to secure a prompt

agreement before he assumed the SADC Presidency and to ensure

 

PRETORIA 00001632 002.2 OF 002

 

 

his legacy. He understood there was also pressure from

Russia and China following the UNSC vote; the ANC had

promised Russian and China an agreement would occur before

the Olympics.

 

¶7. (C) Because of this pressure, Masiyiwa was concerned that

Mbeki would press for a quick agreement that was less

favorable to the MDC than his draft agreement. Mbeki was not

concerned about a good agreement, he averred, but only one

that would pass muster with other African leaders.

 

¶8. (C) Masiyiwa expressed a lack of confidence in the MDC’s

resolve to hold firm and negotiate a good agreement along the

lines of his draft. He noted that Tsvangirai had begun

negotiations without even securing the return of his passport

which had been seized by the government after his return to

Zimbabwe in June. Also, after the signing of the Memorandum

of Understanding between ZANU-PF and the MDC on July 22,

Tsvangirai had publicly renounced violence, but Mugabe had

not done so. Masiyiwa thought that Tendai Biti, Tsvangirai’s

lead negotiator, had been broken during his time in custody

and could be manipulated by ZANU-PF. He believed the

Mutambara faction’s lead negotiator, Welshman Ncube, was

“slippery” and would not stand up to ZANU-PF.

 

————————————–

International Support for an Agreement

————————————–

 

¶9. (C) Masiyiwa said he warned Tsvangirai he could be

picking up a “poison chalice” if he entered into an agreement

that was not satisfactory to the U.S. and the EU. A

transitional government needed Western support and would fail

without it. Relatedly, Masiyiwa urged the U.S. to impress

upon Mbeki and his mediation team that a “quality agreement”

was necessary; otherwise there would be no Western economic

support and an agreement would be hollow.

 

———————-

Embassy Harare Comment

———————-

 

¶10. (C) Although Masiyiwa has definite ideas on what the

ultimate agreement should be, we don’t know whether Mugabe

and ZANU-PF will ultimately accept Masiyiwa’s draft agreement

or whether the South Africans will present (or have already

presented) something else. Regardless, it is increasingly

likely that there will be a power-sharing agreement reached

between ZANU-PF and the MDC, quite possibly sooner rather

than later. The parties are now working out the details of

the agreement. ZANU-PF and Mugabe are not willing to cede

power to Tsvangirai, and it appears that the MDC will accept

a government that includes a substantial role for Mugabe and

ZANU-PF. The MDC is tired and has apparently calculated that

it is better to try and to bring peace and stability now

through an agreement, with the promise of elections in two

years, than for Zimbabwe to continue to suffer violence, much

of it targeted at the MDC.

 

¶11. (C) If an agreement comes to pass, the new government

will undoubtedly ask for U.S. UK, and international financial

institution assistance. In fact, Tsvangirai may make the

request on behalf of the government.

 

¶12. (C) Ambassador will speak with Tsvangirai over the

weekend to reiterate to him that a substantive role for

Mugabe is a non-starter for the USG.

 

¶13. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Harare.

BOST

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