Masipula said Zimbabwe had never had free and fair elections

Professor Masipula Sithole told United States embassy officials in the run-up to the 2002 presidential elections that Zimbabwe had never had free and fair elections.

In 1990 when former Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front secretary-general Edgar Tekere stood against President Robert Mugabe, there was plenty of violence and shootings.

Sithole said Mugabe was bent on winning the 2002 elections by hook or crook but when people took to the streets it was inevitable that Mugabe would have an unhappy exit.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 01HARARE3558, EXPECT HUGE VOTER TURNOUT IN ZIMBABWE,

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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5492

PAGE 01       HARARE 03558 01 OF 02 271549Z

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/008W

——————43B887 271550Z /38

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0398

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003558

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI

SUBJECT: EXPECT HUGE VOTER TURNOUT IN ZIMBABWE,

POLITICAL POLLSTER TELLS AMBASSADOR

CLASSIFIED BY POLOFF TODD C. FAULK FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B)

AND (D).

¶1. (C) ON NOVEMBER 26, AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN, ACCOMPANIED

BY POLOFF, MET MASIPULA SITHOLE, THE CHAIR OF THE

UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT,

COLUMNIST, AND DIRECTOR OF THE HARARE-BASED MASS PUBLIC

OPINION INSTITUTE. SITHOLE REPORTED THAT HIS

ORGANIZATION IS CURRENTLY COMPILING THE RESULTS OF A

NATIONWIDE SURVEY RECENTLY CONDUCTED TO UNCOVER THE

EXTENT OF VOTER APATHY IN ZIMBABWE. SURPRISINGLY,

SITHOLE SAID THE INITIAL FINDINGS ARE POINTING TO AN 89

TO 90 PERCENT TURNOUT IN THE EARLY 2002 PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION, WHICH WOULD BE THE SECOND HIGHEST TURNOUT

SINCE ZIMBABWE’S INDEPENDENCE. IT WOULD ALSO REPRESENT

A MAJOR TURNAROUND FROM THE PREDOMINANT ELECTORAL TREND

OF DECLINING VOTER PARTICIPATION SINCE INDEPENDENCE. TO

ILLUSTRATE, SITHOLE STATED THAT 94 PERCENT VOTED IN

1980, 84 PERCENT IN 1985, 54 PERCENT IN 1990, 54 PERCENT

IN 1995 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 31 PERCENT IN THE 1996

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, AND 48 PERCENT IN THE 2000

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.

TOO LATE FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTION?

————————————

¶2. (C) SITHOLE THANKED THE AMBASSADOR FOR HIS RECENT

PUBLIC STATEMENT SAYING THAT THE U.S. WAS NOT INCLINED

TO RECOGNIZE THE RESULTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

UNLESS POLITICAL CONDITIONS IMPROVED. THIS IS A POINT

THE U.S. SHOULD BE MAKING “A LOT LOUDER,” THE PROFESSOR

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 03558 01 OF 02 271549Z

OPINED. MUGABE MUST BE WARNED OF DISINCENTIVES IF HE

DOES NOT HOLD A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION; HOWEVER, THERE

HAS NEVER BEEN ONE IN INDEPENDENT ZIMBABWE, SITHOLE

CONTINUED. IN 1990, WHEN FORMER ZANU-PF REFORMER EDGAR

TEKERE RAN AGAINST MUGABE, THERE WAS PLENTY OF “VIOLENCE

AND SHOOTINGS.” WHEN ASKED IF HIS INSTITUTE PLANNED TO

CONDUCT A SURVEY ON PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES, HE STATED

THE RESULTS OF ONE WOULD BE COMING OUT BY LATE JANUARY.

AN UNHAPPY EXIT AWAITS MUGABE

—————————–

¶3. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE IS BENT ON WINNING THE ELECTION

BY “HOOK OR CROOK,” BUT WHEN THE PEOPLE TAKE TO THE

STREETS, AN “UNHAPPY EXIT” WILL BE INEVITABLE FOR

MUGABE, THE PROFESSOR PREDICTED. IF DISINCENTIVES DID

NOT CONVINCE HIM TO HOLD A FREE ELECTION, THEN AT THIS

POINT, AN EXIT PACKAGE OF INCENTIVES FOR MUGABE TO

RELINQUISH POWER WOULD BE “APPROPRIATE.” THE ARMY WOULD

UNDERWRITE A SET OF ASSURANCES AND ACT AS NEGOTIATOR

WITH TSVANGIRAI, WHO UNDERSTANDS THE NECESSITY OF

LETTING MUGABE GO IN PEACE. MUGABE KNOWS HE IS

UNPOPULAR AND IS WORRIED ABOUT HIS PHYSICAL SECURITY —

OTHERWISE HE WOULD NOT BE CLINGING TO POWER SO

DESPERATELY. ASKED ABOUT MUGABE’S FINANCIAL SECURITY,

SITHOLE SAID THIS IS NOT THE PRESIDENT’S PRIMARY

CONCERN. HE ALREADY HAS MORE THAN ENOUGH MONEY FOR HIM

AND HIS FAMILY. HOWEVER, IF GIVEN THE PROPER

ASSURANCES, MUGABE WOULD LEAVE POWER, SITHOLE OPINED.

A LITTLE HELP FROM MUGABE’S FRIENDS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 03558 01 OF 02 271549Z

———————————–

¶4. (C) AMBASSADOR THEN INQUIRED WHETHER MUGABE’S INNER

CIRCLE WOULD ACCEPT MUGABE’S DEPARTURE, AND SITHOLE SAID

THEY WOULD IF THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE EXIT PACKAGE.

ULTRALOYALISTS SUCH AS SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON

MNANGAGWA — AND PRESUMED HEIR TO THE MUGABE THRONE —

WOULD HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN THE DEPARTURE DEAL. EVEN

THOUGH THERE ARE THOSE IN ZANU-PF WHO WILL AGAIN TRY TO

PERSUADE MUGABE TO STEP ASIDE AT THIS YEAR’S RULING

PARTY CONFERENCE, THEY WILL NOT SUCCEED. ALL THOSE

REFORMISTS WITH INFLUENCE, SUCH AS FORMER MINISTER

EDDISON ZVOBGO, HAVE BEEN PUSHED ASIDE. DEFENSE

MINISTER SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI AND FORMER DEFENSE FORCES

CHIEF SOLOMON MUJURU ARE “REASONABLE AND RATIONAL,” BUT

THEY ARE NOT MEMBERS OF MUGABE’S INNER CIRCLE.

INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO — WITH WHOM SITHOLE

USED TO JOG IN THE U.S. AND AT THE UNIVERSITY OF

ZIMBABWE — COULD DIRECT TRANSITION EVENTS IN A POSITIVE

WAY IF HE WAS PROPERLY APPROACHED AND GIVEN SIMILAR EXIT

INCENTIVES, THE PROFESSOR OFFERED.

COMMENT

——-

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5493

PAGE 01       HARARE 03558 02 OF 02 271549Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00

SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00   FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00

H-01     TEDE-00 INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01

NSAE-00 OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00   PC-01   PM-00   PRS-00

ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00   DSCC-00

DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 SAS-00     /008W

——————43B88F 271550Z /38

P 271500Z NOV 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0399

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003558

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/11

TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI

SUBJECT: EXPECT HUGE VOTER TURNOUT IN ZIMBABWE,

POLITICAL POLLSTER TELLS AMBASSADOR

¶5. (C) WE ARE SKEPTICAL OF SITHOLE’S “INITIAL FINDINGS”

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 03558 02 OF 02 271549Z

OF A PREDICTED 89-90 PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT IN THE

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ALTHOUGH WE WOULD HAVE TO SEE

THE POLL’S RESULTS AND METHODOLOGY, WE HAVE TO TEMPER

THE INITIAL FINDINGS WITH THE OBSERVATION THAT LARGE

NUMBERS OF PEOPLE ARE AFRAID TO EVEN RESPOND TO POLLING

QUESTIONS. REPORTEDLY, 50 PERCENT OF PEOPLE APPROACHED

REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE IN AN AUTHORITATIVE SURVEY DUE

OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS AN EVEN BIGGER — AND

MORE CRITICAL — LEAP FROM DESIRING A POLITICAL CHANGE

AND ACTUALLY GOING TO THE POLLING BOOTH AND EXPRESSING

THAT DESIRE UNDER THE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING IN

ZIMBABWE.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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(32 VIEWS)