Makumbe says even an idiot would be better than Mugabe

University of Zimbabwe political scientist John Makumbe came to the rescue of the Movement for Democratic Change when the party came under fire for not capitalising on its June 2000 election performance which saw the party winning 57 out of the 120 contested seats in parliament.

He said the MDC was gaining ground among the middle class, which during the parliamentary campaign was sceptical of Morgan Tsvangirai’s intellectual heft, but is now convinced after the “annus horribilis” of 2000 that “even an idiot would be better than Mugabe”.

The party was under attack from the privately owned media for not energetically consolidating its support in the aftermath of the June parliamentary elections.

The Financial Gazette carried a stinging front page story in December accusing the opposition party of fumbling along without any sense of urgency or direction, of making ill-considered public statements, and of letting its supporters down by failing to pursue its long-promised mass action.

The Daily News in January carried a scathing political cartoon entitled Preparing for election 2002. It portrayed the MDC as a fat man in a deep slumber over a sign saying Do not disturb, we only wake up when there is booing to do in Parliament.

MDC MP Tendai Biti admitted that the party had been adrift from September through December, but claimed that it had awakened from its slumber.

Makumbe, however, maintained that the MDC had gained strength since June. According to Makumbe, many Zimbabweans who sympathized with the party did not vote for it because they did not think it stood a chance, and were greatly surprised when the party won 57 seats.

As a result, an increasing number of voters were now convinced that the party provided a credible alternative to the current regime.

Full cable;

Viewing cable 01HARARE125, ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7970

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000125

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/08/11

TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PREL ZI

SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH

CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS

REF: HARARE 114

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D’AFFAIRES EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5

(B) AND (D).

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PAGE 02       HARARE 00125 01 OF 03 091359Z

SUMMARY

——-

¶1. (C) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE INDEPENDENT PRESS HAS

CRITICIZED THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE

(MDC) FOR FUMBLING ALONG WITHOUT ANY SENSE OF URGENCY OR

DIRECTION. MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHQ NCUBQTRONGLY

REJECTED THE CRITICISM, SAYING SOME WERE UNDERSTANDABLY

FRUSTRATED WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE ECONOMY AND

CONTINUED GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED LAWLESSNESS, AND WITH THE

OPPOSITION PARTY’S INABILITY TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT.   HE

INSISTED THAT THE PARTY WAS ORGANIZING ENERGETICALLY IN

RUQL AREAS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION. MDC MP TENDAI BITI ADMITTED THAT THE MDC HAD

BEEN ADRIFT FROM SEPTEMBER THROUGH DECEMBER, BUT CLAIMED

THAT IT HAD AWAKENED FROM ITS SLUMBER. SINCE IT WON 57

SEATS IN PARLIAMENT IN JUNE 2000, THE MDC APPEARS TO HAVE

GAINED MIDDLE CLASS SUPPORT, AND SOME RURAL AREAS, WHERE

MANY ANGRY RESIDENTS WERE UNABLE TO AFFORD BREAD DURING THE

HOLIDAY SEASON, ARE PROVING TO BE INCREASINGLY FERTILE

GROUND. AT THE SAME TIME, IN ORDER TO ASSUAGE SUPPORTERS

FRUSTRATED ABOUT THE LACK OF CHANGE, THE MDC MUST DO A

BETTER JOB OF EXPLAINING TO ITS SUPPORTERS THE LIMITED ROLE

IT CAN PLAY AS AN OPPOSITION PARTY.   END SUMMARY.

MDC ADRIFT?…

————–

¶2. (U) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR

DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) HAS BEEN STRONGLY CRITICIZED IN THE

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PAGE 03       HARARE 00125 01 OF 03 091359Z

INDEPENDENT MEDIA FOR NOT ENERGETICALLY CONSOLIDATING ITS

SUPPORT IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY

ELECTIONS.   IN LATE DECEMBER, THE INFLUENTIAL WEEKLY “THE

FINANCIAL GAZETTE” CARRIED A STINGING FRONT PAGE STORY

URGING THE MDC TO SHAPE UP OR TO GO. THE ARTICLE ACCUSED

THE OPPOSITION PARTY OF FUMBLING ALONG WITHOUT ANY SENSE OF

URGENCY OR DIRECTION, OF MAKING ILL-CONSIDERED PUBLIC

STATEMENTS, AND OF LETTING ITS SUPPORTERS DOWN BY FAILING

TO PURSUE ITS LONG-PROMISED MASS ACTION.   ON JANUARY 3,

THE “DAILY NEWS” CARRIED A SCATHING POLITICAL CARTOON

ENTITLED “PREPARING FOR ELECTION 2002.” IT PORTRAYED THE

MDC AS A FAT MAN IN A DEEP SLUMBER OVER A SIGN SAYING “DO

NOT DISTURB, WE ONLY WAKE UP WHEN THERE IS BOOING TO DO IN

PARLIAMENT.” ZANU-PF, ON THE OTHER HAND, WAS PORTRAYED AS

A MUSCLE-BOUND MAN LIFTING WEIGHTS INTENSIVELY IN

PREPARATION FOR 2002.

…WHILE MUGABE CONSOLIDATES CONTROL OF ZANU-PF

——————————————— —

¶3. (C) WHILE THE MDC APPEARED TO BE STUMBLING, PRESIDENT

MUGABE WAS BUSY CONSOLIDATING HIS CONTROL OVER THE RULING

PARTY. HE USED ZANU-PF’S EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS IN

DECEMBER TO QUASH GROWING DISSENT WITH HIS LEADERSHIP,

ELEVATING TO THE PARTY’S SUPREME DECISION-MAKING BODY CLOSE

ALLIES SUCH AS PARLIAMENT SPEAKER EMMERSON MNANGAGWA AND

YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI, AND EXPELLING

THOSE, SUCH AS EDDISON ZVOBGO, WHOSE LOYALTIES TO MUGABE

WERE WANING. MUGABE ALSO SQUELCHED ANY POTENTIAL

CHALLENGES TO HIM AS THE PARTY’S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN

¶2002. MUGABE’S SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF HIS CONTROL

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PAGE 04       HARARE 00125 01 OF 03 091359Z

OVER THE RULING PARTY, COMBINED WITH THE PARTY’S VICTORY IN

THE SPECIAL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION IN MARONDERA IN NOVEMBER

(ALBEIT A VICTORY ACHIEVED THROUGH VIOLENCE AND

INTIMIDATION) CONTRIBUTED TO A PUBLIC PERCEPTION THAT ZANU-

PF HAD REGAINED A DEGREE OF POLITICAL MOMENTUM.

CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS

———————-

¶4. (C) MUCH OF THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA’S CRITICISM OF THE

MDC IS ROOTED IN A GENUINE FRUSTRATION THAT, DESPITE THE

MDC’S WINNING NEARLY HALF THE CONTESTED SEATS IN

PARLIAMENT, THE ECONOMY HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND

GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED LAWLESSNESS IN RURAL AREAS HAS

CONTINUED UNABATED. OUR MDC CONTACTS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT

SOME OF THE CRITICISM WAS JUSTIFIED, BUT POINTED OUT THAT

IT IS SIMPLY UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT AN OPPOSITION PARTY

WITHOUT ACCESS TO GOVERNMENT RESOURCES — AND IN DIRE

FINANCIAL STRAITS ITSELF — TO DELIVER JOBS, BETTER ROADS,

AND HEALTH CARE. MOREOVER, THESE CONTACTS INSISTED, THE

MDC IS NOW WORKING ENERGETICALLY THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY TO

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P 091359Z JAN 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7971

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000125

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/08/11

TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PREL ZI

SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH

CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS

PREPARE FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

¶5. (C) TENDAI BITI, WHO REPRESENTS THE MDC IN PARLIAMENT

AND SERVES AS THE PARTY’S SHADOW FOREIGN MINISTER,

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PAGE 02       HARARE 00125 02 OF 03 091359Z

ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE PARTY EXPERIENCED A SLUMP FROM

SEPTEMBER THROUGH DECEMBER OF LAST YEAR. HE ATTRIBUTED THE

SLUMP TO EXHAUSTION IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE PARLIAMENTARY

ELECTIONS AND TO A CRISIS OF LEADERSHIP, RESULTING FROM THE

ELECTION OF MANY OF THE MDC’S MOST CAPABLE LEADERS TO

PARLIAMENT, AN INSTITUTION WHICH CONSUMED THEIR ATTENTION

AND ALLOWED LITTLE TIME FOR GRASS-ROOTS PARTY-BUILDING.

IN ADDITION, BITI CRITICIZED MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN

TSVANGIRAI FOR TAKING A NUMBER OF FOREIGN TRIPS THAT WERE

SIPDIS

NOT SANCTIONED BY THE PARTY AND DID NOT APPEAR TO HAVE

CLEAR OBJECTIVES. HE SINGLED OUT FOR PARTICULAR CRITICISM

TSVANGIRAI’S MEETING WITH RENAMO LEADER DHLAKAMA IN SOUTH

SIPDIS

AFRICA, CALLING IT “COMPLETELY PREMATURE.”   BITI ALSO

CRITICIZED SOME OF HIS MDC PARLIAMENTARY COLLEAGUES FOR NOT

MEETING FREQUENTLY ENOUGH WITH THEIR CONSTITUENTS.

¶6. (C) THE MDC IS CURRENTLY HAVING TO WALK A VERY NARROW

TIGHTROPE. IF THE PARTY MOVES TOO AGGRESSIVELY IN

ORGANIZING MASS ACTION INTENDED TO PRESSURE PRESIDENT

MUGABE TO STEP DOWN, THE GOVERNMENT ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD

RESPOND WITH OVERWHELMING FORCE, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT

BLOODSHED AND PROVIDING A PRETEXT TO CLOSE DOWN THE MDC,

WHICH COULD SET BACK THE PARTY’S DEVELOPMENT SEVERAL YEARS.

ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE OPPOSITION PARTY MOVES TOO SLOWLY

IN PRESSING FOR CHANGE, IT RISKS ALIENATING ITS SUPPORTERS.

THE BEST WAY TO NEGOTIATE THAT TIGHTROPE SUCCESSFULLY, BITI

BELIEVED, IS TO RETURN TO BASICS BY IDENTIFYING THE ISSUES

OF CORE CONCERN TO ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS — THE ECONOMY,

INCLUDING THE LAND ISSUE, MISGOVERNANCE, AND THE NEED FOR

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM — AND TO COMMUNICATE REGULARLY WITH

VOTERS A CLEAR MDC POSITION ON THOSE ISSUES. BITI NOTED

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PAGE 03       HARARE 00125 02 OF 03 091359Z

THAT THE MDC’S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE HAD AGREED TO

FORM FOR EACH PROVINCE OUTREACH TEAMS CHARGED WITH TAKING

THE MDC’S MESSAGE TO RURAL ZIMBABWEANS.

¶7. (C) IN A JANUARY 5 CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF, MDC

SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE STRONGLY DISAGREED WITH

SIPDIS

THE ASSESSMENT THAT THE MDC IS RESTING ON ITS LAURELS. HE

ATTRIBUTED THAT PERCEPTION PRIMARILY TO INDEPENDENT MEDIA

JOURNALISTS WHO, HE SAID, HAD BECOME INCREASINGLY

FRUSTRATED WITH THE MDC’S INABILITY TO EFFECT ANY

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GOVERNMENT’S DISASTROUS POLICIES.

NCUBE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE OPPOSITION PARTY COULD HAVE

DONE A BETTER JOB OF COMMUNICATING WITH THE MEDIA, AND WAS

MOVING TO ADDRESS THIS SHORTCOMING BY ORGANIZING MEETINGS

BETWEEN THE SENIOR MDC LEADERSHIP AND THE EDITORS OF THE

MAJOR INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS. NCUBE REGRETTED THAT

“CARELESS” STATEMENTS BY MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI

HAD PROVIDED RICH FODDER FOR CRITICISM, PARTICULARLY

TSVANGIRAI’S PREDICTION THAT MUGABE WOULD BE OUT OF OFFICE

SIPDIS

BY DECEMBER 2000.

¶8. (C) NCUBE INSISTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE MDC HAD WORKED

SUCCESSFULLY TO STRENGTHEN ITS SUPPORT SINCE THE

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS LAST JUNE.   HE AND PARTY VICE-

PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, HE SAID, HAD SPENT EVERY WEEKEND

SINCE JUNE IN CITIES AND TOWNS THROUGHOUT ZIMBABWE CARRYING

THE MDC’S MESSAGE, AND HE HAD OBSERVED A NOTICEABLE

INCREASE IN THE NUMBERS AND DIVERSITY OF PEOPLE AT THEIR

RALLIES.   AS AN EXAMPLE OF THE PARTY’S GROWING

ORGANIZATIONAL STRENGTH, NCUBE POINTED OUT THAT THE MDC NOW

HAS IN PLACE IN MOST OF ZIMBABWE’S EIGHT PROVINCES

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EXECUTIVE COMMITTEES AT THE VILLAGE, WARD, AND CAPITAL CITY

LEVELS.

MASVINGO KEY PROVINCE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

——————————————— –

¶9. (C) ACCORDING TO NCUBE, THE MDC IS NOW FOCUSING

INTENSIVELY ON BUILDING SUPPORT FOR THE UPCOMING

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THE MDC BELIEVES IT CURRENTLY

ENJOYS 90% SUPPORT IN MATABELELAND NORTH AND MATABELELAND

SOUTH, 55-65% SUPPORT IN MIDLANDS, 60-70% IN MANICALAND,

AND 50% IN MASVINGO. THE PARTY HOPES IT CAN WIN 35-40% OF

THE VOTES IN ZANU-PF’S STRONGHOLDS IN MASHONALAND EAST,

WEST, AND CENTRAL, BUT NCUBE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THAT WOULD BE AN

UPHILL STRUGGLE, PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE GOVERNMENT’S TACTIC

OF INTIMIDATING OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS INTO STAYING AWAY

FROM THE POLLS.   IN THE END, NCUBE IS CONVINCED THAT

MASVINGO WILL BE THE KEY BATTLEGROUND PROVINCE, AS IT IS

THE MOST POPULOUS AND BECAUSE THE RECENT EXPULSION OF

NATIVE SON POLITICIAN EDDISON ZVOBGO FROM THE ZANU-PF

POLITBURO MIGHT NUDGE FENCE-SITTING VOTERS INTO THE MDC

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00 DODE-00 DS-00   FBIE-00

VC-00   TEDE-00 INR-00   VCE-00   NSAE-00 IRM-00   SSO-00

SS-00   DSCC-00 DRL-02   NFAT-00 SAS-00     /002W

——————B40221 091400Z /38

P 091359Z JAN 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7972

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000125

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/08/11

TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PREL ZI

SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH

CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS

CAMP.

MDC GAINING STRENGTH

——————–

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PAGE 02       HARARE 00125 03 OF 03 091400Z

¶10. (C) INDEPENDENT OBSERVERS AGREE THAT THE PARTY REMAINS

POPULAR, ALTHOUGH THE MDC HAS MUCH WORK TO DO TO

CONSOLIDATE ITS GAINS OF LAST JUNE. UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE

POLITICAL SCIENTIST JOHN MAKUMBE MAINTAINS THAT THE MDC HAS

GAINED STRENGTH SINCE JUNE. ACCORDING TO MAKUMBE, MANY

ZIMBABWEANS WHO SYMPATHIZED WITH THE MDC DID NOT VOTE FOR

IT BECAUSE THEY DID NOT THINK IT STOOD A CHANCE, AND WERE

GREATLY SURPRISED WHEN THE PARTY WON 57 SEATS. AS A RESULT

OF THE MDC’S ELECTORAL SUCCESS, AN INCREASING NUMBER OF

VOTERS ARE NOW CONVINCED THAT THE PARTY PROVIDES A CREDIBLE

ALTERNATIVE TO THE CURRENT REGIME. IN PARTICULAR, THE MDC

IS GAINING GROUND AMONG THE MIDDLE CLASS, WHICH DURING THE

PARLIAMENTARY CAMPAIGN WAS SKEPTICAL OF MORGAN TSVANGIRAI’S

INTELLECTUAL HEFT, BUT IS NOW CONVINCED AFTER THE “ANNUS

HORRIBILIS” OF 2000 THAT “EVEN AN IDIOT WOULD BE BETTER

THAN MUGABE.”   MAKUMBE CONTENDED THAT THE MDC IS BEGINNING

TO ATTRACT SUPPORT FROM BLACK AND WHITE ZIMBABWEAN

BUSINESSMEN LIVING ABROAD WHO HAVE BEEN CONVINCED THAT THE

PARTY WOULD PURSUE RATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES, AND TO MAKE

INROADS WITH INCREASINGLY ANGRY RURAL RESIDENTS, MANY OF

WHOM COULD NOT EVEN AFFORD TO BUY BREAD DURING THE HOLIDAY

SEASON.   IN ADDITION, ACCORDING TO MAKUMBE, THE MDC IS

DEMONSTRATING MATURITY BY TRYING TO WOO THE ARMY, BOTH VIA

PUBLIC STATEMENTS ABOUT THE IMPORTANT ROLE OF THE MILITARY,

AND IN QUIET BEHIND-THE-SCENES DISCUSSIONS.

COMMENT

——-

¶11. (C) FOR AN OPPOSITION PARTY THAT IS LITTLE MORE THAN A

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PAGE 03       HARARE 00125 03 OF 03 091400Z

YEAR OLD, THE MDC HAS ACHIEVED SOME IMPRESSIVE INROADS. IT

CONVINCED VOTERS TO REJECT A DRAFT CONSTITUTION THAT WOULD

HAVE FURTHER STRENGTHENED PRESIDENTIAL POWERS. IT WON 57

OF THE 120 CONTESTED SEATS IN PARLIAMENT, BREATHING NEW

LIFE INTO AN INSTITUTION THAT HAD BEEN MERELY A RUBBER

STAMP FOR THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH, SUBJECTING THE GOVERNMENT

TO SCRUTINY AND GENERATING A NEW INTEREST IN PARLIAMENT AND

POLITICS. THE MDC HAS PROVIDED AN ALTERNATIVE VOICE TO

ZANU-PF, AND PARLIAMENT HAS PROVIDED LEGITIMACY TO THAT

VOICE. ONE OF THE MAJOR ISSUES OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, — THE

FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE — IS BEING CONDUCTED

EXTRANEOUS TO PARLIAMENT — AND, INDEED, THE JUDICIAL

BRANCH — AS GOVERNMENT RESOURCES ARE OSTENSIBLY BEING

DEPLOYED IN SUPPORT OF THE LAWLESSNESS ON COMMERCIAL FARMS.

IT IS IMPERATIVE FOR THE MDC’S OWN RELEVANCE THAT THE PARTY

SHIFT THE DEBATE ON LAND BACK INTO PARLIAMENT. SHINING A

SPOTLIGHT ON THE DELETERIOUS IMPACT OF THE FAST TRACK

APPROACH ON THE ECONOMY AND THE RULE OF LAW, AND OFFERING A

CLEAR, RATIONAL ALTERNATIVE PROGRAM WOULD HAVE A POWERFUL

RESONANCE WITH THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF ZIMBABWEANS WHO

ARE FED UP WITH THE GOVERNMENT’S POLITICAL MANIPULATION OF

THE LAND ISSUE.

¶12. (C) THE MDC REMAINS POPULAR, AS FRUSTRATION MOUNTS IN

MOST SECTORS OF ZIMBABWE’S POPULATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT’S

POLICIES. AT THE SAME TIME, THE MDC LEADERSHIP RECOGNIZES

THAT, IF IT INTENDS TO REMAIN VIABLE AND REGAIN POLITICAL

MOMENTUM, IT HAS SOME PUBLIC RELATIONS WORK TO DO WITH ITS

SUPPORTERS — VIA THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, WORD OF MOUTH, AND

REGULAR MEETINGS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY — IN EXPLAINING

WHAT ROLE IT CAN PLAY AS AN OPPOSITION PARTY AND THAT IT

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CANNOT BRING THE KIND OF CHANGE THEY ARE DEMANDING WHILE IN

THE MINORITY.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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