How to get Mugabe to step down

The only way to get President Robert Mugabe to step down is to get a series of respectable and influential people in the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front to begin speaking out against his presidential candidacy.

This was said over 10 years ago by Eddison Zvobgo, who had been one of the presidential hopefuls until he was kicked out of the powerful politburo.

Speaking before the 2002 presidential elections, Zvobgo said the first person to castigate Mugabe would face a strong rebuke, but once a second and third person joined the chorus, it would be difficult for Mugabe to drown out the resulting noise, and he would be forced to relinquish his candidacy for president.

Zvobgo hinted that he would be one of the first people to speak out against Mugabe but he emphasised that the criticism could not begin too early before the election because Mugabe would have time to devise ountermeasures that would quash any party revolt.

University of Zimbabwe research fellow Brian Raftopoulos theorised that after Mugabe won re-election and legitimised his win with blessings from SADC leaders, he would feel comfortable stepping down with the knowledge that land redistribution would continue and the Movement for Democratic Change was destroyed.

Zvobgo dismissed this theory saying whoever believed this did not know Mugabe as well as he did. Zvobgo said Mugabe intended to complete his next term.

Full cable:

Viewing cable 01HARARE1672, RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING

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221207Z May 01

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5898

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——————EF359B 221223Z /38

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8933

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11

TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI

SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING

PARTY STRENGTH

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 01672 01 OF 03 221223Z

REF: A) HARARE 1648, B) HARARE 1620, C) HARARE 1535,

D) HARARE 1515, E) HARARE 1470

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D’AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS:

1.5 (B) AND (D).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE ARE BEGINNING

TO UNDERMINE A ZANU-PF THAT HAD BEEN INFUSED WITH NEW

CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS DECEMBER 2000 CONGRESS. THE SUDDEN

DEATH OF PARTY COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI, THE RESIGNATION OF

INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO,

THE LOSS OF THE MASVINGO MAYORSHIP TO THE OPPOSITION

MDC, AND THE FAILED CAMPAIGN TO BOOST URBAN SUPPORT BY

ATTACKING BUSINESSES AND NGOS, ARE EVENTS THAT HAVE

DULLED THE RULING PARTY’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE PROSPECTS.

DOUBTS ARE GROWING ABOUT THE PARTY’S RECENTLY-COMPLETED

RESTRUCTURING EXERCISE, WHICH HAD BEEN LED BY GEZI, IN

WHETHER IT WILL HELP THE PARTY MORE THAN HURT IT IN NEXT

YEAR’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. FINGER POINTING IS ON THE

UPSWING, AND OLD DIVISIONS ARE REAPPEARING AS CONCERNS

ABOUT PRESIDENT MUGABE’S CANDIDACY FOR THE ELECTION

RESURFACE. END SUMMARY.

SUDDEN VACANCIES WILL BE HARD TO FILL

————————————-

¶2. (C) THE APRIL 28 DEATH OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT

MINISTER, PARTY COMMISSAR, AND BINDURA MP BORDER GEZI IN

A CAR ACCIDENT (REF E) LEFT A YAWNING GAP IN THE ZANU-PF

STRUCTURE. IT WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND AS

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PAGE 03       HARARE 01672 01 OF 03 221223Z

ENTHUSIASTIC A PARTY PROMOTER TO FILL ALL THREE OF

GEZI’S POSITIONS. BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, A RESEARCH FELLOW

AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, TOLD US THERE IS NO ONE

IN THE PARTY WHO CAN ADEQUATELY REPLACE GEZI. WHEN

ASKED WHETHER GEZI’S DEATH HAD NOT BEEN AN ACCIDENT,

RAFTOPOULOS DISCOUNTED THE POPULAR RUMOR, SAYING GEZI

HAD BEEN TOO VALUABLE TO THE PARTY FOR ANY RIVAL TO KILL

HIM, AND IN ANY CASE, WAS TOO YOUNG TO BE A SERIOUS

CONTENDER FOR A MAJOR POSITION OF POWER. FRED SHAVA,

ZANU-PF’S NATIONAL DIRECTOR FOR ADMINISTRATION, TOLD

POLOFF THAT GEZI HAD BEEN A “FANTASTIC ORGANIZER.”

SHAVA REFUSED TO SPECULATE ON WHO HIS REPLACEMENT AS

POLITICAL COMMISSAR MIGHT BE, BUT SAID HE WOULD COME

FROM THE PARTY’S CENTRAL COMMITTEE, IF NOT THE SMALLER

POLITBURO. THE PARTY WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOMEONE WITH

GEZI’S “AGILITY,” THE DIRECTOR STATED. THE MAY 11

EDITION OF THE “ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT” LISTED CHINHOYI MP

PHILIP CHIYANGWA, BUSINESSMAN JAMES MAKAMBA, AND

MASHONALAND CENTRAL GOVERNOR ELLIOT MANYIKA AS THE

LIKELIEST SUCCESSORS. MINISTER OF STATE FOR NATIONAL

SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY AS HE IS

THE ACTING COMMISSAR. AS FOR WHO WOULD BE APPOINTED

YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER, SHAVA REMARKED THAT THAT IS

PURELY “THE PRESIDENT’S PREROGATIVE.”

¶3. (C) BOTH SHAVA AND RAFTOPOULOS CHARACTERIZED

INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO’S

RESIGNATION (REF C) AS UNIMPORTANT. SHAVA COMMENTED

THAT IT WAS “OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO THE PARTY,” AS MOYO

HAD NOT EVEN BEEN A PARTY MEMBER. RAFTOPOULOS LIKENED

THE RESIGNATION TO A “BLIP ON THE SCREEN” BECAUSE MOYO,

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PAGE 04       HARARE 01672 01 OF 03 221223Z

AS A REFORMER, HAD NOT BEEN ABLE TO DO MUCH ANYWAY.

WHEN ASKED ABOUT RUMORS OF MORE HIGH-PROFILE

RESIGNATIONS, RAFTOPOULOS SAID THAT EVEN IF THEY DID

OCCUR, THEY WOULD NOT LEAD TO “CONVULSIONS” IN THE PARTY

AS THEY HAD IN ZAMBIA’S RULING PARTY. (NOTE: DISSENTION

AMONG SENIOR CIVIL SERVANTS SEEMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE.

MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT PERMANENT SECRETARY FINNIE

MUNYIRA TOLD US MAY 16 THAT HE HAD RECENTLY FILED HIS

RETIREMENT PAPERS BECAUSE HE IS FED UP. A DIRECTOR IN

THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE, AND KEY INTERLOCUTOR BETWEEN

DONORS AND GOZ, HAS ALSO FILED RETIREMENT PAPERS FOR

SIMILAR REASONS. A SENIOR PROVINCIAL OFFICIAL RESIGNED

IN MATABELELAND NORTH DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH MEDICAL

SERVICES BY WAR VETS.   END NOTE.) EDDISON ZVOBGO,

MASVINGO “SUPREMO” AND MP FOR MASVINGO SOUTH, TOLD US

THAT A NUMBER OF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, INCLUDING FINANCE

MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, HAVE RECENTLY ASKED HIM HOW THEY

CAN “GET OUT OF GOVERNMENT.”

MORE SETBACKS IN URBAN AREAS

—————————-

¶4. (C) ZANU-PF HAS BEEN HIT WITH MORE SETBACKS IN

RECENT WEEKS WITH THE LOSS OF THE MASVINGO MAYORAL

ELECTION TO THE MDC (REF B), AND THE FAILURE OF ITS

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DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00

FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00 INR-00   IO-00

L-00     VCE-00   MED-07   AC-01   DCP-01   NSAE-00 OIC-02

OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00

SP-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00   DSCC-00 PRM-01

DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 SAS-00     /017W

——————EF35AD 221223Z /38

P 221207Z MAY 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8934

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 001672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11

TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI

SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING

PARTY STRENGTH

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 01672 02 OF 03 221223Z

“LABOR RESOLUTION” CAMPAIGN TO BOOST SUPPORT IN THE

CITIES. THE MAY 12-13 LOSS IN MASVINGO IS NOT ONLY

ZANU-PF’S FIRST LOSS OF A MAYORSHIP, IT WAS LOST BY A

TWO-TO-ONE MARGIN — DESPITE HEAVY CAMPAIGNING AND

INTIMIDATION BY RULING PARTY SUPPORTERS. THE WAR

VETERAN CAMPAIGN TO INTERVENE IN LABOR DISPUTES BETWEEN

FORMER EMPLOYEES AND BUSINESSES AND NGOS HAS BEEN AN

UNMITIGATED DISASTER. JOSEPH CHINOTIMBA AND OTHER WAR

VETERAN LEADERS WERE BOOED OFF THE STAGE WHEN THEY TRIED

TO SPEAK ABOUT THEIR CAMPAIGN AT THE ZCTU’S MAY DAY

RALLY IN HARARE (REF D). MOST POLITICAL OBSERVERS HERE

AGREE THAT THE CAMPAIGN, WITH ITS RESULTING BUSINESS

CLOSURES, HAS HARDENED URBAN PUBLIC OPINION AGAINST

ZANU-PF. REALIZING THAT THE WAR VET LABOR CAMPAIGN WAS

NOT WORKING, AND BENDING TO A GROWING INTERNATIONAL

OUTCRY, GOVERNMENT BACKED OFF AND ORDERED THE ARREST OF

TWO PROVINCIAL ZANU-PF OFFICIALS WHO HAD BEEN INVOLVED

IN DIRECTING THE WAR VETERANS (REF A). THE ZANU-PF

DEPUTY CHAIRMAN FOR HARARE, MIKE MOYO, WAS QUICKLY

RELEASED ON BAIL.

PARTY RESTRUCTURING MORE HURTFUL THAN HELPFUL

———————————————

¶5. (C) THE REORGANIZATION OF PROVINCIAL PARTY

STRUCTURES AND THE REPLACEMENT OF ELECTED PARTY

EXECUTIVES MAY HURT ZANU-PF MORE THAN HELP IT IN THE

RUNUP TO THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. PARTY

COMMISSAR GEZI HAD LED THE CHARGE TO REENERGIZE THE

PARTY AFTER ITS DEVASTATING LOSSES IN THE JUNE 2000

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PAGE 03       HARARE 01672 02 OF 03 221223Z

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. ACCORDING TO ZVOBGO, GEZI

“MASSACRED” THE PARTY’S STRUCTURES. NINE OUT OF TEN

LEGITIMATELY ELECTED PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVES WERE

SUMMARILY DISMISSED, AND YOUNGER, MOSTLY INEXPERIENCED

LEADERS WERE IMPOSED BY HARARE. ZVOBGO BELIEVES THIS

WILL BE THE PARTY’S UNDOING IN 2002. “YOU DON’T

DEMOLISH 20-YEAR-OLD STRUCTURES AND EXPECT NEW ONES TO

BE REBUILT OVERNIGHT,” ZVOBGO LAMENTED. THE NEW

PROVINCIAL LEADERSHIPS “DON’T KNOW WHERE THE PARTY’S

BEEN OR WHERE IT’S GOING,” WHICH IS A SIGN OF THE

GENERAL DECAY OF THE ZANU-PF MACHINE, THE MASVINGO MP

ADDED.

¶6. (C) WEBSTER SHAMU, ZANU-PF MP FOR CHEGUTU AND OUSTED

MASHONALAND WEST PARTY CHAIRMAN, SANG ZVOBGO’S REFRAIN.

WITH THE PARTY RESTRUCTURING EXERCISE, ZANU-PF WAS

MOVING AWAY FROM DEMOCRATIC STRUCTURES TO MORE

DICTATORIAL ONES, SHAMU COMPLAINED. THE PARTY

LEADERSHIP WAS BYPASSING ITS OWN PROCEDURES TO PUT IN

MORE LOYAL EXECUTIVES. THE MAY 14 “DAILY NEWS”

DESCRIBED THE ELECTION OF CHINHOYI MP PHILLIP CHIYANGWA

AS ZANU-PF’S MASHONALAND WEST CHAIRMAN AS A DIVISIVE AND

CONTENTIOUS AFFAIR. THE ELECTION BY PARTY CADRES HAD TO

BE POSTPONED AFTER WAR VETERANS DISRUPTED THE MEETING TO

PROTEST CHIYANGWA’S CANDIDACY. THE WAR VETERANS

REPORTEDLY COMPLAINED THAT CHIYANGWA WAS “TRYING TO

LEAPFROG TO A SENIOR POSITION IN THE PARTY.” (COMMENT:

IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A SENIOR PARTY OFFICIAL OPPOSED

TO CHIYANGWA SENT THE WAR VETERANS TO THE CHINHOYI

MEETING IN AN ATTEMPT TO DERAIL THE MP’S CANDIDACY. END

COMMENT.) THE ARTICLE ALSO QUOTED A FORMER ZANU-PF MP

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PAGE 04       HARARE 01672 02 OF 03 221223Z

AS SAYING AT THE MEETING “THESE YOUNG PEOPLE WITH MONEY

[CHIYANGWA] ARE KILLING THE PARTY.” SHAVA TOLD POLOFF

THAT CHIYANGWA HAS A BIG TASK AHEAD OF HIM, BUT BELIEVES

HE WILL FULFILL HIS DUTIES “WITH ZEAL.” THE MAY 22

EDITION OF THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED “THE HERALD”

REPORTED THAT, WITH PARTY ELECTIONS IN BULAWAYO AND

MATABELELAND NORTH ON MAY 19-20, THE RESTRUCTURING

EXERCISE IS COMPLETE.

DOUBTS ABOUT MUGABE CANDIDACY RESURFACE

—————————————

¶7. (U) ZANU-PF’S RECENT SETBACKS APPEAR TO HAVE

REIGNITED THE OLD DEBATE IN THE PARTY ON WHETHER MUGABE

SHOULD BE ITS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR. THE MAY

18-23 “ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT” REPORTED THAT ZANU-PF

NATIONAL CHAIRMAN JOHN NKOMO STATED THAT MUGABE HAD NOT

YET BEEN NOMINATED AS THE PARTY’S CANDIDATE FOR

PRESIDENT. A FLURRY OF DENIALS SOON CASCADED OUT OF

MUGABE’S INNER CIRCLE, FIRST BY PARTY INFORMATION

SECRETARY NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA, THEN BY INFORMATION

SIPDIS

MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, SAYING THAT MUGABE WAS ALREADY

THE PARTY’S CANDIDATE AND THERE WOULD BE NO FURTHER

DISCUSSION OF THE MATTER. NKOMO IS CONSIDERED THE

ARCHRIVAL OF SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA,

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CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5900

PAGE 01       HARARE 01672 03 OF 03 221223Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   AID-00   AMAD-00 ACQ-00   CIAE-00 INL-00

DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00

FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00 INR-00   IO-00

L-00     VCE-00   MED-07   AC-01   DCP-01   NSAE-00 OIC-02

OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00

SP-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00   DSCC-00 PRM-01

DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 SAS-00     /017W

——————EF35C2 221223Z /38

P 221207Z MAY 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8935

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 001672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11

TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI

SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING

PARTY STRENGTH

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 01672 03 OF 03 221223Z

WHO IS OFTEN SEEN AS PRESIDENT MUGABE’S CHOSEN

SUCCESSOR.

¶8. (C) ZVOBGO TOLD US THAT THE ONLY WAY TO GET MUGABE

TO STEP DOWN BEFORE THE ELECTION WOULD BE FOR A SERIES

OF “RESPECTABLE” AND INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE IN THE PARTY TO

BEGIN SPEAKING OUT AGAINST MUGABE’S CANDIDACY. ZVOBGO

OPINED THAT THE FIRST PERSON TO CASTIGATE MUGABE WOULD

FACE A STRONG REBUKE, BUT ONCE A SECOND AND THIRD PERSON

JOINED THE CHORUS, IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR MUGABE TO

DROWN OUT THE RESULTING NOISE, AND HE WOULD BE FORCED TO

RELINQUISH HIS CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT. ZVOBGO HINTED

THAT HE WOULD BE ONE OF THE FIRST PEOPLE TO SPEAK OUT

AGAINST MUGABE. THE WILY MP EMPHASIZED HOWEVER, THAT

THE CRITICISM COULD NOT BEGIN TOO EARLY BEFORE THE

ELECTION LEST MUGABE HAVE TIME TO DEVISE COUNTERMEASURES

THAT WOULD QUASH ANY PARTY REVOLT. BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS

THEORIZED THAT AFTER MUGABE WON RE-ELECTION AND

LEGITIMIZED HIS WIN WITH BLESSINGS FROM SADC LEADERS, HE

WOULD FEEL COMFORTABLE STEPPING DOWN WITH THE KNOWLEDGE

THAT LAND REDISTRIBUTION WOULD CONTINUE AND THE MDC WAS

DESTROYED. ZVOBGO DISMISSED THIS THEORY, SAYING WHOEVER

BELIEVES IT DOES NOT KNOW MUGABE AS WELL AS HE DOES.

ZVOBGO THINKS MUGABE INTENDS TO COMPLETE HIS NEXT TERM.

COMMENT

——-

¶9. (C) THERE ARE NEW SIGNS OF INTERNAL DISSATISFACTION

IN ZANU-PF AND THE GOZ. SENIOR CIVIL SERVANTS ARE

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PAGE 03       HARARE 01672 03 OF 03 221223Z

LEAVING AGAINST A BACKDROP OF A PURGE OF PARTY

STRUCTURES THAT HAS LEFT A LOT OF BRUISED PEOPLE BEHIND.

ALTHOUGH OUR CONTACTS DOWNPLAYED NKOSANA MOYO’S

RESIGNATION, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A CHAIN

REACTION OF OTHER HIGH-PROFILE RESIGNATIONS IN

GOVERNMENT OR CABINET. ONE OR TWO MORE WOULD FURTHER

DAMPEN MORALE IN ZANU-PF AS A WHOLE, AND INCREASE THE

LEVEL OF PARANOIA AMONG THE TOP LEADERSHIP. MORE

MINISTERS WOULD COME UNDER SUSPICION OF DISLOYALTY, AND

MORE, SUCH AS FORMER LANDS AND AGRICULTURE MINISTER

KUMBIRAI KANGAI, COULD FIND THEMSELVES ON THE WRONG END

OF A CORRUPTION INVESTIGATION. WAR VETERANS HAVE

ACCUSED REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE, A PARTY

LOYALIST AND STALWART, OF RIGGING THE MASVINGO MAYORAL

ELECTION. THE LOSS OF THE BULAWAYO MAYORAL ELECTION —

SCHEDULED FOR JUNE — AND ADDITIONAL RECRIMINATIONS FROM

THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY — PARTICULARLY THE EU, IF

IT DECIDES TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS NEXT MONTH — WOULD WEIGH

HEAVILY ON ZANU-PF LEADERS, ESPECIALLY MUGABE.

UNFORTUNATELY, THE LIKELY REACTION FROM ZANU-PF WILL BE

TO CIRCLE THE WAGONS AND RETURN TO THE TRIED AND TRUE

TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION AGAINST RURAL

RESIDENTS. END COMMENT.

IRVING

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