Holland said it would be difficult to control MDC youths if Mugabe stole election

Movement for Democratic Change secretary for International Affairs Sekai Holland said it was getting more difficult to control youths and others who were increasingly determined to retaliate in the face of Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front intimidation.

She was responding to a message from United States assistant secretary Lorne Craner’s message to the MDC leadership that the international community was counting on the MDC to channel Zimbabwe’s anger if President Robert Mugabe stole the election.

MDC vice-President Gibson Sibanda said the MDC leadership would do its best to restrain the party’s supporters if the MDC lost.

Tarcy Zimbiti of the Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace said if Tsvangirai won the country could plummet into a low intensity civil war with resettled farmers refusing to give up land given to them by ZANU-PF; and if Mugabe won, he expected the high density suburbs to erupt into violence. 

Full cable:

Viewing cable 02HARARE284, A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

310819Z Jan 02

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5560

PAGE 01       HARARE 00284 01 OF 04 310830Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   AID-00   AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00   DODE-00

SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00   VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00

INR-00   IO-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01   DCP-01

NSAE-00 OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00

ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00

PMB-00   DSCC-00 PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 SAS-00

SWCI-00   /010W

——————5FDDFE 310831Z /38

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0842

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000284

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12

TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI

SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU

ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS

REF: 01 HARARE 3672

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:

1.5 (B) AND (D).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: BETWEEN JANUARY 15 AND 18, ASSISTANT

SECRETARY LORNE CRANER AND HIS DELEGATION MET WITH A

SIPDIS

WIDE SAMPLING OF ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION AND

CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES. A/S CRANER INFORMED TWO

MEMBERS OF THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) THAT THE

ZIMBABWE LEADERSHIP IS IN THE PROCESS OF “PULLING THE

TRIGGER” OF US TRAVEL AND FINANCIAL RESTRICTIONS.

MEANWHILE, THE GOZ TRIED TO DOWNPLAY REPRESSIVE

LEGISLATION RECENTLY PASSED BY THE ZIMBABWE PARLIAMENT

AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES BY RULING PARTY SUPPORTERS.

OPPOSITION, CIVIL SOCIETY AND COMMERCIAL FARM

REPRESENTATIVES PAINTED A PICTURE OF A RAPIDLY

DETERIORATING HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION ON THE GROUND. THE

GROUPS WITH WHOM CRANER MET WERE DIVIDED ON THE OUTCOME

OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR MARCH AND ITS

AFTERMATH. END SUMMARY.

——————————————-

MESSAGE TO GOZ: YOU ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER

——————————————-

¶2. (C) ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DEMOCRACY,

HUMAN RIGHTS AND LABOR LORNE CRANER, HIS DEPUTY JOHN

SCOTT CARPENTER, S/P ADVISOR TOM CALLAHAN, AMBASSADOR

SULLIVAN AND POLOFF MET WITH SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT —

AND ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF ADMINISTRATION — EMMERSON

MNANGAGWA, WHO WAS JOINED BY CLERK OF PARLIAMENT AUSTIN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 00284 01 OF 04 310830Z

ZVOMA AND MFA U.S. DESK OFFICER RICHARD CHIBUWE. AFTER

INITIAL PLEASANTRIES, A/S CRANER POINTED OUT GROWING

U.S. CONCERN FOR THE DETERIORATING HUMAN RIGHTS

SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE AND THE RECENT PASSAGE OF

REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION BY PARLIAMENT. MNANGAGWA REPLIED

THAT VIOLENCE ON THE FARMS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY

AND THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW FARM INVASIONS SINCE THE

MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE “CLOSED” THE A1 RESETTLEMENT

SCHEME ON JULY 31, 2001. THAT MAY BE SO, CRANER

RETORTED, BUT THE LEVEL OF POLITICALLY-MOTIVATED

VIOLENCE UNRELATED TO THE LAND ISSUE APPEARS TO BE

INCREASING. THE SPEAKER BLAMED THE MDC FOR STARTING A

FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE, TO WHICH ZANU-PF

YOUTHS RESPOND IN KIND. ADDITIONALLY, THE GOZ DOES NOT

HAVE “YOUTH BRIGADES” — IT SPONSORS A NATIONAL YOUTH

SERVICE IN WHICH YOUTHS ARE TRAINED AND DEPLOYED FOR

COMMUNITY SERVICE IN CLINICS AND SCHOOLS. IT IS TRUE,

MNANGAGWA STATED, THAT THE POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE THEIR

OWN YOUTH WINGS, AND IT IS THEY WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR

THE VIOLENCE. REGARDING THE RECENTLY PASSED PUBLIC

ORDER AND SECURITY ACT (POSA), MNANGAGWA PUZZLED OVER

U.S. CONCERNS, SAYING THE LEGISLATION INCORPORATES

PROVISIONS FROM BRITISH AND SOUTH AFRICAN LAWS. A/S

CRANER REPLIED THAT IT APPEARS THE POSA UTILIZES THE

HARSHEST ASPECTS OF THESE LAWS AND MADE THE POINT THAT

NO ONE WORRIES TOO MUCH ABOUT THESE PROVISIONS THERE

BECAUSE WHERE THE RULE OF LAW PREVAILS, HARSH PROVISIONS

CAN BE CHALLENGED. IN ZIMBABWE, THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY

THE CASE ANY LONGER.

¶3. (C) A/S CRANER STATED THAT WHEN A/S WALTER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 00284 01 OF 04 310830Z

KANSTEINER MET WITH GOZ OFFICIALS LAST MONTH (REFTEL),

HE SAID GOZ ACTIONS WOULD DETERMINE WHETHER THE U.S.

ADMINISTRATION ENACTS TRAVEL AND FINANCIAL RESTRICTIONS

ON ZIMBABWEAN LEADERS AS STIPULATED IN THE ZIMBABWE

DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA). SINCE

THEN, THE USG HAS SEEN ONLY A DETERIORATION IN THE

SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE; IN FACT, THE GOZ IS “PULLING THE

TRIGGER” OF U.S. RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ITS FAILURE TO

STEM POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF DRACONIAN

LEGISLATION. MNANGAGWA REPLIED THAT THERE IS A GROWING

ANTI-U.S. FEELING IN THE GOZ; THE ZDERA IS A U.S. QUID

PRO QUO FOR BRITAIN’S SUPPORT IN THE WAR AGAINST

TERRORISM; AND THE GOZ CAN ONLY ACT IN THE INTERESTS OF

THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, NOT THOSE OF THE U.S. THE

SPEAKER MAINTAINED THAT THE OLD LAW AND ORDER

MAINTENANCE ACT, WHICH THE POSA REPLACED, PROVIDED FOR

THE DEATH PENALTY FOR NINE OFFENSES — THE POSA DOES FOR

ONLY ONE, AND THAT THERE ARE NO POLITICAL PRISONERS IN

ZIMBABWE, UNLIKE MANY OTHER COUNTRIES.

¶4. (C) THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS’ UNDER SECRETARY

FOR EUROPE AND AMERICAS GEORGE VENGESA TOLD A/S CRANER

THAT ZIMBABWE IS “ON TRACK” FOR A FREE AND FAIR

ELECTION, A MESSAGE IT HAS BEEN DELIVERING TO ITS SADC

PARTNERS. A/S CRANER REMARKED THAT DESPITE A HISTORY OF

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5562

PAGE 01       HARARE 00284 02 OF 04 310831Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   AID-00   AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00   DODE-00

SRPP-00 DS-00    EB-00   EUR-00   VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00

INR-00   IO-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01   DCP-01

NSAE-00 OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00

ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00

PMB-00   DSCC-00 PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 SAS-00

SWCI-00   /010W

——————5FDE10 310831Z /38

P 310819Z JAN 02

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0843

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 000284

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12

TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI

SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU

ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS

BUMPY RELATIONS, THE U.S. DOES CARE ABOUT ZIMBABWE AND

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 00284 02 OF 04 310831Z

THAT IT IS NOT IN LEAGUE WITH THE BRITISH TO UNDERMINE

THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE TO SAY THE PRACTICES IN

ZIMBABWE TO DATE DO NOT FIT WITH THE DEMOCRATIC TRENDS

OF THE REGION. BECOMING DEFENSIVE, VENGESA STATED “HOW

CAN YOU SAY THAT WHEN 57 OPPOSITION MPS WERE ELECTED IN

2000?” THE MFA OFFICIAL THEN DEMANDED TO KNOW WHY

ZIMBABWE WAS BEING SINGLED OUT FOR SANCTIONS WHEN OTHER

COUNTRIES HAVE SIMILAR PROBLEMS. “WHAT OTHER AFRICAN

COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN SLAPPED WITH SANCTIONS IN THIS

MANNER?” A/S CRANER RESPONDED THAT SOUTH AFRICA IN THE

1980S AND MORE RECENTLY SUDAN AND NIGERIA HAVE BEEN HIT

WITH MORE DRACONIAN SANCTIONS FOR SERIOUS HUMAN RIGHTS

ABUSES. ZIMBABWE IS GETTING OFF RELATIVELY EASILY AS

THE ZDERA PROVIDES FOR MORE INCENTIVES THAN

RESTRICTIONS. A/S CRANER ALSO DELIVERED THE USG MESSAGE

TO VENGESA, AS HE DID TO MNANGAGWA, THAT THE GOZ IS

“SQUEEZING THE TRIGGER” OF SANCTIONS. VENGESA GLUMLY

STATED THAT HE WOULD PASS ON THE MESSAGE TO MORE SENIOR

GOZ OFFICIALS.

—————

IMPACT OF ZDERA

—————

¶5. (C) A NUMBER OF CIVIL SOCIETY AND OPPOSITION

REPRESENTATIVES WITH WHOM THE CRANER DELEGATION MET

COMMENTED ON THE ZDERA. CHAIRMAN REGINALD MATCHABA-HOVE

AND NATIONAL COORDINATOR RINDAI CHIPFUNDE OF THE

ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN), AN UMBRELLA

ORGANIZATION OF ZIMBABWE NGOS, OPINED THAT THE ZDERA AND

THREAT OF EU SANCTIONS HAD SOMEWHAT SOFTENED THE GOZ’S

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 00284 02 OF 04 310831Z

HARSH ATTITUDE TOWARD THE WEST. IN THEIR OPINION, THE

U.S. RESPONSE SHOULD BE ROBUST, AND AN INCREMENTAL

APPLICATION OF SANCTIONS ON LEADERS WOULD BE MOST

EFFECTIVE. THE ZESN CHIEFS ALSO NOTED THAT SOME

ZIMBABWEANS STILL BELIEVE THAT THE ZDERA IMPOSES

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON ZIMBABWE; MORE PUBLIC STATEMENTS

OR EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON THE LAW WOULD HELP STEM THE

CONFUSION. MARY NDLOVU, A TRUSTEE OF THE LEGAL

RESOURCES FOUNDATION NGO, WAS MORE POINTED AND SAID

ZIMBABWEANS WANT TO SEE THEIR LEADERS PUNISHED. “WHY IS

IT TAKING SO LONG TO ENACT?” SHE ASKED RHETORICALLY.

PAUL TEMBA-NYATHI, THE MDC’S ELECTIONS DIRECTOR,

DIFFERED BY SAYING ANY ZDERA RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE

IMPOSED IMMEDIATELY TO LET THE GOZ KNOW THAT THE

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FINDS ITS ACTIONS UNACCEPTABLE.

“WOULD THIS NOT LEAD TO A STATE OF EMERGENCY BEFORE THE

ELECTION?” THE AMBASSADOR ASKED. NO, A DE FACTO STATE

OF EMERGENCY ALREADY EXISTS, TEMBA-NYATHI OPINED.

—————————————-

CATALOGUE OF HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES GROWING

—————————————-

¶6. (C) THE CRANER DELEGATION, ACCOMPANIED BY AMBASSADOR

SULLIVAN AND POLOFF, TRAVELED ABOUT 100 KM SOUTHEAST OF

HARARE TO CHIPESA FARM, WHICH IS OWNED BY MDC ACTIVISTS

IAN AND KERRY KAY. GATHERED AT THE FARM WERE TWO OTHER

COMMERCIAL FARMERS, FIVE FARM WORKERS, AND A RESETTLED

BLACK FARMER. THE FARM WORKERS MATTER-OF-FACTLY

DESCRIBED THE NIGHTLY BEATINGS THEY RECEIVE WITH WHIPS

AND CHAINS BY ZANU-PF YOUTHS, THE BURNING DOWN OF THEIR

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 00284 02 OF 04 310831Z

HOMES, AND THE CONSTANT HARASSMENT AND DEATH THREATS.

ONE WORKER HAD PHOTOGRAPHS OF HIS BACK WHERE HE HAD BEEN

STRUCK FOUR TIMES WITH AN AX. THEIR CHILDREN DON’T GO

TO SCHOOL AND OTHER CO-WORKERS ARE SO FEARFUL THAT THEY

SLEEP IN THE BUSH FOR WEEKS AT A TIME. ALL THE WHILE

THEY ARE TOLD TO STOP WORKING FOR THE KAYS AND TO VOTE

FOR ZANU-PF. MOST OF THE ZANU-PF YOUTH ARE BROUGHT IN

FROM HARARE OR FAR-AWAY COMMUNAL FARMS. THEY RECENTLY

COLLECTED 10 OLDER CHILDREN FROM THE FARM FOR TRAINING

AT THE BORDER GEZI NATIONAL YOUTH SERVICE TRAINING

CENTER NEAR MOUNT DARWIN. THE KAYS STATED THAT THE

INTIMIDATION IS DESIGNED BY ZANU-PF TO FORCE THEIR

WORKERS TO LEAVE SO THAT THEIR FARM GOES OUT OF BUSINESS

AND THEY CAN NO LONGER SUPPORT THE MDC. THE GOZ SEES

THEM AS A THREAT.

¶7. (C) THE RESETTLED BLACK FARMER LAID BARE THE GOZ’S

CLAIMS THAT ITS LAND RESETTLEMENT SCHEME IS FOR THE

BENEFIT OF “THE PEOPLE.” HE STATED THAT HE HAS LIVED

AND WORKED ON NEARBY LAND MADE AVAILABLE TO HIM BY THE

GOZ IN 1984. HE HAD DONE WELL RAISING MAIZE BY APPLYING

HIMSELF AND HIS SKILLS. HOWEVER, THIS YEAR, ZANU-PF

SUPPORTERS BURNED ALL HIS CROPS TO “MAKE AN EXAMPLE” OUT

OF HIM FOR HIS VILLAGE. APPARENTLY HIS TRADING TIES

WITH THE KAYS WERE GROUNDS FOR BEING TARGETED. TARCY

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5567

PAGE 01       HARARE 00284 03 OF 04 310831Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   AID-00   AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00   DODE-00

SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00   VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00

INR-00   IO-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01   DCP-01

NSAE-00 OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00

ACE-00   P-00    SP-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00

PMB-00   DSCC-00 PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 SAS-00

SWCI-00   /010W

——————5FDE28 310831Z /38

P 310819Z JAN 02

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0844

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 000284

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12

TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI

SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU

ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS

ZIMBITI, ACTING DIRECTOR OF THE CATHOLIC COMMISSION FOR

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 00284 03 OF 04 310831Z

JUSTICE AND PEACE (CCJP), IN A SEPARATE MEETING, SAID

ZANU-PF IS GOING AS FAR AS BEATING UP ITS OWN SUPPORTERS

SO IT CAN SAY THE MDC IS PERPETRATING VIOLENCE.

¶8. (C) SEVERAL INTERLOCUTORS, INCLUDING HIGH COURT

JUSTICE FERGUS BLACKIE, TOLD THE CRANER DELEGATION THAT

THE GOZ INVESTIGATION AND PROSECUTION OF POLITICAL

VIOLENCE CASES HAS BEEN HIGHLY SELECTIVE. MANY TIMES

THE HIGH COURT HAS POINTED OUT TO THE MINISTRY OF

JUSTICE, WHICH CONDUCTS PROSECUTIONS, WHO SHOULD BE

ARRESTED AND PROSECUTED FOR POLITICALLY-MOTIVATED

CRIMES. WHENEVER ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS ARE INVOLVED,

USUALLY NOTHING IS DONE; HOWEVER, IF SOMEONE FROM THE

MDC CAN BE BLAMED, THOSE CASES ARE MOVED TO THE FRONT OF

THE COURT DOCKET, BLACKIE AND JUSTICE MOHAMED ALI ADAM

REMARKED.

——————————————

REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION IS PART OF THE PLAN

——————————————

¶9. (C) A COMMON TOPIC IN A/S CRANER’S MEETINGS WAS THE

RECENTLY PASSED PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY ACT (POSA) AND

GENERAL LAWS AMENDMENTS ACT, WHICH ALTERED THE ELECTORAL

ACT IN ZANU-PF’S FAVOR. THE ZESN REPRESENTATIVES SAID

THE ELECTORAL ACT, AS AMENDED, REQUIRES ALL VOTER

EDUCATION TO BE CARRIED OUT BY THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY

COMMISSION (ESC). IT ALSO GIVES THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL,

WHO IS REGARDED AS A ZANU-PF SYMPATHIZER, MORE CONTROL

OVER THE ELECTORAL PROCESS AND COULD CREATE MORE

OPPORTUNITIES FOR VOTE-RIGGING. ZESN SAID IT IS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 00284 03 OF 04 310831Z

IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT THE AMENDMENTS DO NOT “BAN

THE MDC” OR “BAN NGOS” AS SOME PRESS REPORTS WOULD HAVE

IT, BUT THEY DO PLACE GREATER RESTRICTIONS ON THE

ACTIVITIES OF THE OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY. TARCY

ZIMBITI OF THE CCJP SAID THAT BECAUSE OF THE VOTER

EDUCATION RESTRICTIONS, HIS ORGANIZATION IS NOW

DESCRIBING ITS EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES AS “SOCIAL

TEACHINGS OF THE CHURCH” AS AN (UNTESTED) WAY AROUND THE

NEW LAW. MATCHABA-HOVE OF ZESN REMARKED THAT THE

CHURCHES ARE NOW THE ONLY PRACTICAL VEHICLE FOR VOTER

EDUCATION IN ZIMBABWE SINCE 75 PERCENT OF ZIMBABWEANS

ARE CHURCH-GOING CHRISTIANS.

¶10. (C) THE POSA IS A MATTER OF CONCERN FOR ZESN

MEMBERS IN THE WAY IT COULD BE USED TO LIMIT CAMPAIGNING

FOR POLITICAL PARTIES AND FOR GENERAL VOTER EDUCATION.

PEARSON NHERERE, A PROMINENT ATTORNEY AND TRUSTEE OF THE

LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION (LRF), STATED THAT THE POSA

“SEVERELY RESTRICTS PUBLIC GATHERINGS, WHETHER THEY BE

ON THE STREET OR IN A BUILDING.” ASKED BY PDAS

CARPENTER WHY ZANU-PF HAD SO FAR FAILED TO PASS THE

DRACONIAN ACCESS TO INFORMATION BILL AND LABOR RELATIONS

AMENDMENT BILL, NHERERE STATED THAT THOSE BILLS ARE PART

OF ZANU-PF’S LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR STAYING IN POWER AND

PROVIDE LITTLE ADDED BENEFIT FOR THIS ELECTION. THEY

CONTAIN PROVISIONS THAT WOULD NOT BRING THEM INTO EFFECT

UNTIL THREE MONTHS AFTER THEIR PASSAGE; THE ELECTION IS

ALREADY LESS THAN SIX WEEKS AWAY. APOLITICAL

ORGANIZATIONS LIKE THE NATIONAL AIDS COUNCIL ARE

CANCELING OUTREACH PROGRAMS OUT OF FEAR OF BEING

PROSECUTED UNDER THE NEWLY PASSED POSA, ACCORDING TO

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 00284 03 OF 04 310831Z

MARY NDLOVU OF LRF.

————

THE ELECTION

————

¶11. (C) IN MEETING WITH ESC CHAIRMAN SOBUSA GULA-

NDEBELE (A GOZ APPOINTEE), A/S CRANER NOTED THAT THE

STANDARD FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IS A GLOBAL ONE —

NOT JUST AN AMERICAN OR BRITISH ONE — AND ASKED FOR THE

CHAIRMAN’S ASSESSMENT OF WHERE THE ESC STANDS ON

PREPARING FOR THE MARCH 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

GULA-NDEBELE IMPLIED THAT THE ESC WAS BEHIND SCHEDULE IN

ITS PREPARATIONS AND IT WOULD BE A “RUSH” JOB TO FIND

AND TRAIN ALL THE ELECTION MONITORS IT NEEDS; BUT HE

ALSO NOTED THAT THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR

CONDUCTING THE ELECTION, WHEREAS THE ESC MERELY

SUPERVISES THEM. IN HIS ONLY MILD CRITICISM OF THE GOZ,

THE CHAIRMAN COMPLAINED THAT THE ESC HAS NOT BEEN GIVEN

ENOUGH RESOURCES TO DO ITS JOB. IT WOULD NEED AN

ADDITIONAL ZIM$500 MILLION (US$1.72 MILLION) TO CARRY

OUT ITS MISSION PROPERLY, HE STATED.

¶12. (C) IN RESPONDING TO USG CONCERNS, GULA-NDEBELE

STATED THAT IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ONE TO

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5569

PAGE 01       HARARE 00284 04 OF 04 310832Z

ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   AID-00   AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00   DODE-00

SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00   VC-00   H-01     TEDE-00

INR-00   IO-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01   DCP-01

NSAE-00 OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00

ACE-00   P-00     SP-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00

PMB-00   DSCC-00 PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 SAS-00

SWCI-00   /010W

——————5FDE35 310832Z /38

P 310819Z JAN 02

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0845

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 000284

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12

TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI

SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU

ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS

TAMPER WITH BALLOT BOXES AFTER ELECTION POLLING — PARTY

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 00284 04 OF 04 310832Z

AGENTS AND ESC MONITORS WOULD BE WITH THE BOXES AT ALL

TIMES UNTIL THE VOTES ARE COUNTED. THE BOXES ARE

GUARDED OVERNIGHT AFTER THE FIRST DAY OF VOTING, AND

THEY ARE NOT MOVED TO THE COUNTING CENTERS UNTIL AFTER

THE POLLING STATIONS ARE CLOSED ON THE SECOND DAY.

ARMED POLICE, ACCOMPANIED BY THE PARTY AGENTS AND

MONITORS, TAKE THE BOXES TO THE COUNTING CENTERS, WHERE

THE VOTES ARE COUNTED, UNCLEARLY MARKED BALLOTS

EXAMINED, AND SPOILED BALLOTS TABULATED. THE CHAIRMAN

COMMENTED THAT THE DECEMBER CHEGUTU MAYORAL ELECTION IN

WHICH THE MDC CANDIDATE WON SHOWED THAT THERE IS NO VOTE

MANIPULATION. THE AMBASSADOR NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT A

HIGH NUMBER OF SPOILED BALLOTS COULD SKEW THE RESULTS,

TO WHICH GULA-NDEBELE REPLIED THAT THE NUMBER IS

NORMALLY VERY LOW. RESPONDING TO CONCERNS THAT THE

NUMBER OF POLLING STATIONS HAS DECREASED IN RECENT

ELECTIONS (THEREBY MAKING VOTER PARTICIPATION MORE

DIFFICULT), GULA-NDEBELE CLAIMED THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN

INCREASE IN POLLING STATIONS IN RURAL AREAS, AND THAT

THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE SAYS THERE SHOULD BE MORE THERE.

¶13. (C) ZESN’S NATIONAL COORDINATOR STATED THAT BY

HOLDING THE HARARE MAYORAL ELECTION AT THE SAME TIME AS

THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THE GOZ INTENDS TO DRAW MDC

MONITORS AWAY FROM ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS IN THE RURAL

AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME CONFUSION OVER WHICH

BALLOT GOES IN WHICH BOX, WHICH COULD BENEFIT ZANU-PF.

THE FARM WORKERS AT CHIPESA FARM SAID THAT DESPITE THE

INTENSE INTIMIDATION IN RURAL AREAS, PEOPLE ARE NOT

AFRAID TO VOTE, NOR DO THEY INTEND TO VOTE FOR ZANU-PF.

MDC VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, IN A SEPARATE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03       HARARE 00284 04 OF 04 310832Z

MEETING, ECHOED THIS REFRAIN, SAYING PEOPLE ARE

DETERMINED TO VOTE AND THAT THEY HAVE ALREADY MADE UP

THEIR MINDS TO VOTE FOR MDC. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO

HOPE OF A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION, IT IS NOT EVEN AN

OPTION UNDER CONSIDERATION BY THE MDC TO BOYCOTT THE

ELECTION, SIBANDA ADDED.

———————————————

NO CONSENSUS ON ELECTION OUTCOME OR AFTERMATH

———————————————

¶14. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN THE

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, MOST OF THE DELEGATION’S

INTERLOCUTORS WERE DIVIDED. MDC ELECTIONS DIRECTOR

TEMBA-NYATHI STATED THAT HE HAD TO REMAIN OPTIMISTIC

THAT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD PREVAIL DESPITE THE

TREMENDOUS OBSTACLES. LOCALLY WELL-KNOWN POLITICAL

COMMENTATORS, INCLUDING CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE CHAIRMAN

BRIAN RAFTOPOLOUS, TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL CHAIRMAN

JOHN MAKUMBE, TRANSPARENCY DIRECTOR ANDREW NONGOGO, AND

ZIMBABWE LIBERATORS PLATFORM CHAIRMAN WILFRED MHANDA,

COULD NOT AGREE ON WHO THE ULTIMATE WINNER WOULD BE.

MHANDA WAS ADAMANT THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD DO

ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING TO WIN THE ELECTION REGARDLESS OF

THE CONSEQUENCES, WHEREAS NONGOGO ARGUED THAT MUGABE

STILL VALUES THE LEGITIMACY THAT AN ELECTION CONVEYS AND

WOULD NOT BLATANTLY RIG THE VOTE, EVEN IF IT MEANT

RISKING A LOSS.

¶15. (C) ON THE ELECTION AFTERMATH, A SINGLE SCENARIO

DID NOT EMERGE, BUT VIOLENCE WAS THE MOST COMMON

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04       HARARE 00284 04 OF 04 310832Z

INGREDIENT. A/S CRANER RELAYED TO THE MDC LEADERSHIP

THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS COUNTING ON THE MDC

TO CHANNEL ZIMBABWEANS’ ANGER IF THE ELECTION WERE

STOLEN. SEKAI HOLLAND, THE MDC’S INTERNATIONAL

RELATIONS SECRETARY, COMMENTED THAT IT IS GETTING MORE

DIFFICULT TO CONTROL YOUTHS AND OTHERS WHO ARE

INCREASINGLY DETERMINED TO RETALIATE IN THE FACE OF

ZANU-PF’S INTIMIDATION. SIBANDA SAID THE MDC LEADERSHIP

WOULD DO ITS BEST TO RESTRAIN THE PARTY’S SUPPORTERS,

BUT HE FULLY EXPECTS THE MDC YOUTH TO DEFY THE

LEADERSHIP’S CALLS FOR RESTRAINT IF THE MDC LOSES.

TARCY ZIMBITI OF THE CCJP SAID IF TSVANGIRAI WINS, THE

COUNTRY COULD PLUMMET INTO A LOW-INTENSITY CIVIL WAR

WHERE RESETTLED FARMERS REFUSE TO GIVE UP LAND GIVEN TO

THEM BY ZANU-PF; ALTERNATIVELY, IF MUGABE WINS, HE

EXPECTS THE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS TO ERUPT IN VIOLENCE.

¶16. (U) A/S LORNE CRANER AND PDAS SCOTT CARPENTER

CLEARED THIS MESSAGE.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

(13 VIEWS)