Did Chombo make an about-turn on land reform?

Local Government Minister Ignatius Chombo is reported to have promised United Nations Development Programme resident representative Victor Angelo that new invasions of commercial farms would stop, “demonstrators” on unlisted and foreign owned farms would be removed, and the war veterans’ violence and death threats would cease.

But diplomats and directors of aid organisations were very sceptical when Angelo briefed on what he perceived to be a shift in government policy on 19 December 2000.

According to a diplomatic cable released by Wikileaks, Chombo met Angelo on 18 December and told him that he was making space for a team that was going to implement the land reform in a more organised manner.

Chombo said he had already met the leadership of war veterans and senior commanders of the military, intelligence and the police to convey a request from President Robert Mugabe that the war veterans remove “demonstrators” from commercial farms that had not been listed or from farms that were agribusiness concerns.

He had also asked the leadership of the national liberation war veterans’ association to stop making death threats, and cease sanctioning the use of violence against commercial farmers and their farm workers.

The news was met with a lot of scepticism with the Spanish ambassador describing Chombo’s ostensible assurances as “wishful thinking.”

Full cable:

Viewing cable 00HARARE7163, UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE

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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7883

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 007163

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND

AFR/SA C. PALMA

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

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PAGE 02       HARARE 07163 01 OF 03 201212Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2010

TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR EAID ZI

SUBJECT: UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE

SHIFT IN GOZ ATTITUDE ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING PARTY

CONGRESS

REF: HARARE 6981 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY CDA EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND

(D).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

(UNDP) RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR ANGELO BRIEFED

DIPLOMATIC HEADS OF MISSION AND SELECTED AID DIRECTORS

DECEMBER 19 ON THE CONTENTS OF ADMINISTRATOR MARK

MALLOCH-BROWN’S LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE. HE TOLD THE

GATHERING THAT HE HAD DETECTED A SHIFT IN ZIMBABWEAN

GOVERNMENT ATTITUDES TOWARD ENGAGING THE INTERNATIONAL

COMMUNITY ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF THE

RECENT EXTRAORDINARY ZANU-PF CONGRESS. MINISTER OF

LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING

IGNATIUS CHOMBO HAD ASSURED HIM THAT NEW INVASIONS OF

COMMERCIAL FARMS WOULD STOP, “DEMONSTRATORS” ON UNLISTED

AND FOREIGN OWNER FARMS WOULD BE REMOVED, AND THE WAR

VETERANS’ VIOLENCE AND DEATH THREATS WOULD CEASE. THE

COMMERCIAL FARMERS’ UNION (CFU) ALSO PERCEIVED A CHANGE

IN GOVERNMENT DISPOSITION AND REACTED QUICKLY, PUTTING

TOGETHER AN ARMS-LENGTH NEGOTIATING TEAM TO EXPLORE A

WAY FORWARD WITH THE GOVERNMENT, ANGELO REPORTED. OTHER

SOURCES HAVE CONFIRMED SIMILAR SIGNS OF MOVEMENT FROM

THE GOVERNMENT. THE GENERAL REACTION TO ANGELO’S NEWS

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PAGE 03       HARARE 07163 01 OF 03 201212Z

WAS ONE OF SKEPTICISM. WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE OUR

SUPPORT TO THE UNDP INITIATIVE, OUR VIEW OF A GOVERNMENT

CONVERSION TO THE RULE OF LAW IS LESS OPTIMISTIC THAN

THAT OF VICTOR ANGELO. WE SEE GOVERNMENT ADHERENCE TO

RULE OF LAW IN THE BIKITA WEST BY-ELECTION AND CABINET’S

REACTION TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER AS KEY INDICATORS

THAT HARARE IS READY TO DEAL CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH US ON

LAND REFORM. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) DURING A MEETING DECEMBER 19 TO BRIEF HEADS OF

MISSION AND SELECTED AID DIRECTORS ON UNDP ADMINISTRATOR

MARK MALLOCH-BROWN’S LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE

(REFTEL), RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR ANGELO REPORTED

A CHANGE IN ATTITUDE FROM KEY ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT

PLAYERS ON THE LAND QUESTION FOLLOWING THE JUST-

CONCLUDED ZANU-PF EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS. ANGELO CITED

A MEETING HE HAD HAD DECEMBER 18 WITH LOCAL GOVERNMENT,

PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING MINISTER IGNATIUS

CHOMBO, HEAD OF THE GOZ’S LAND TASK FORCE, WHOSE BODY

LANGUAGE AND REACTIONS TO A VERBAL PRESENTATION OF THE

CONTENTS OF MALLOCH-BROWN’S LETTER THE FORMER FOUND

“ENCOURAGING.” THE MINISTER REPORTEDLY CHARACTERIZED

THE CURRENT CONJUNCTURE IN ZIMBABWE AS THE “MOST SERIOUS

AND COMPLEX SINCE INDEPENDENCE.”

¶3. (C) ACCORDING TO THE UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE,

CHOMBO SAID THAT HE WOULD MAKE OFFICE SPACE AVAILABLE TO

A TEAM THAT WOULD BE WORKING ON IMPLEMENTING THE LAND

REFORM IN A MORE ORGANIZED WAY. THE MINISTER INFORMED

ANGELO THAT HE HAD EARLIER THAT DAY MET WITH THE WAR

VETERANS’ LEADERSHIP AND SENIOR COMMANDERS FROM THE

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PAGE 04       HARARE 07163 01 OF 03 201212Z

MILITARY, THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION AND THE

POLICE. IN THE GATHERING, THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC

WORKS AND HOUSING MINISTER REPORTEDLY CONVEYED A REQUEST

FROM PRESIDENT MUGABE HIMSELF THAT THE WAR VETERANS

REMOVE “DEMONSTRATORS” FROM COMMERCIAL FARMS THAT HAD

NOT BEEN LISTED OR FROM FARMS THAT WERE AGRIBUSINESS

CONCERNS. FURTHERMORE, HE ASKED THE LEADERSHIP OF THE

NATIONAL LIBERATION WAR VETERANS’ ASSOCIATION TO STOP

MAKING DEATH THREATS, AND CEASE SANCTIONING THE USE OF

VIOLENCE AGAINST COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND THEIR FARM

WORKERS. THE UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE TOLD THE

MINISTER THAT HE TOOK NOTE OF THE INFORMATION AND WOULD

MONITOR PROGRESS OF ITS IMPLEMENTATION ON THE GROUND.

CHOMBO AND OTHERS “IN THE PRESIDENT’S OFFICE” HAD BEEN

SENDING SIGNALS THE PAST TWO WEEKS THAT LINES OF

COMMUNICATION WERE NOT CLOSED, ANGELO CONTINUED, AND

THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS VERY MUCH INTERESTED IN STUDYING

MALLOCH-BROWN’S PROPOSALS. MOREOVER, THE UNDP RESIDENT

REPRESENTATIVE REPORTED THAT THE GOVERNMENT PLANNED TO

“DE-LIST” FARMS THAT FELL UNDER THE ZIMBABWE INVESTMENT

CENTER AND AGRIBUSINESS (I.E., FOREIGN OWNED INTERESTS).

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P 201212Z DEC 00

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7884

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 007163

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND

AFR/SA C. PALMA

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

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PAGE 02       HARARE 07163 02 OF 03 201213Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2010

TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR EAID ZI

SUBJECT: UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE

SHIFT IN GOZ ATTITUDE ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING PARTY

CONGRESS

¶4. (C) THE CFU HAD DETECTED A SHIFT IN GOVERNMENT

DISPOSITION AS WELL, ANGELO REPORTED. THE ORGANIZATION

HAD APPOINTED A THREE-PERSON TEAM, CONSISTING OF

INDIVIDUALS WHO WERE NOT ELECTED OFFICIALS BUT ENJOYED

THE TRUST OF BOTH SIDES, TO ENGAGE THE GOVERNMENT IN

NEGOTIATIONS AND REPORT TO THE CFU LEADERSHIP. THE

RATIONALE OF FORMING THE TEAM WAS TO GIVE IT SOME

AUTONOMY OF ACTION, TO KEEP THE CFU LEADERSHIP AT ARM’S

LENGTH, AND TO AVOID EXPOSING THE LEADERSHIP FURTHER.

ANGELO CONCLUDED THAT THE CFU HAD TWO CHOICES: TO

CONTINUE WITH ITS COURT CASES AND WIN THEM BUT LOSE THE

BATTLE, OR RESOLVE SOME OF THE ISSUES OUTSIDE THE COURTS

AND SKETCH OUT A WAY FORWARD. ANGELO ENDORSED THE

LATTER SORT OF PRAGMATISM WITHIN A SERIOUS SITUATION.

THE GERMAN AMBASSADOR CONCURRED REGARDING THE MARKED

DIFFERENCE IN THE CFU LEADERSHIP’S MOOD. HE SPECULATED

THAT IT MAY HAVE BEEN DUE TO THE FACT THAT, IN SPITE OF

THE VITUPERATIVE TIRADES AGAINST THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS

AND WHITES IN GENERAL, THE PARTY CONGRESS HAD CONCLUDED

THAT ZANU-PF WILL NOT WIN WITH THE FAST TRACK LAND

RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE.

¶5. (C) BUTTRESSING THE FOREGOING SIGNS OF A POSSIBLE

EASING OF THE GOZ’S HARD-LINE STANCE, ONE OF ZIMBABWE’S

LEADING AND VERY WELL-CONNECTED ECONOMIC COMMENTATORS

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PAGE 03       HARARE 07163 02 OF 03 201213Z

TOLD ECONOFF ON DECEMBER 19 THAT HE HAD SEEN DEFINITE

SIGNS OVER THE LAST WEEK THAT TOP LEADERSHIP HAD

DISCUSSED THE ISSUE AT CABINET LEVEL, AND APPARENTLY

AGREED TO AT LEAST ENGAGE IN SERIOUS DIALOGUE. SIMBA

MAKONI AND NKOSONA MOYO (THE FINANCE AND TRADE

MINISTERS), VICE PRESIDENT JOSEPH MSIKA AND MIDLANDS

PROVINCE GOVERNOR CEPHAS MSIPA, ALL SEPARATELY TOLD THE

ECONOMIST THAT THE GOVERNMENT AT LEAST WANTED TO ENGAGE

IN DIALOGUE AND EXPLORE A POSSIBLE FACE-SAVING WAY

FORWARD. SOME ISSUES, SUCH AS A RETURN TO THE WILLING

SELLER-WILLING BUYER BASIS AND COMPENSATION FOR THE LAND

WERE NON-NEGOTIABLE; HOWEVER THE INVASIONS COULD BE

SLOWED DOWN OR SUSPENDED IF THERE WOULD BE INTERNATIONAL

ASSISTANCE FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT. THREE OF THE

FOUR EMPHASIZED THAT EVICTIONS (OF THE RESETTLED) COULD

NOT TAKE PLACE, BUT THE WAR VETERANS’ ARDOR COULD BE

TONED DOWN. AS AN OUTWARD MANIFESTATION OF THIS

TACTICAL SHIFT, THE ECONOMIST POINTED OUT THAT IN A

SPEECH DELIVERED AT A MILITARY SCHOOL OFFICER

COMMISSIONING CEREMONY ON DECEMBER 16 IN GWERU ON THE

HEELS OF THE PARTY CONGRESS, PRESIDENT MUGABE TOLD THE

AUDIENCE IN SHONA THAT NO ADDITIONAL INVASIONS SHOULD

OCCUR, AND THAT THE RESETTLED NEEDED TO CONSOLIDATE

THEIR GAINS AND WORK ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY.

¶6. (C) THE GENERAL DONOR REACTION TO ANGELO’S NEWS WAS

MIXED, TENDING TOWARD THE SKEPTICAL AND WE’LL-BELIEVE-

IT-WHEN-WE-SEE-IT. THE SPANISH AMBASSADOR DESCRIBED

MINISTER CHOMBO’S OSTENSIBLE ASSURANCES AS “WISHFUL

THINKING.” THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION’S REPRESENTATIVE

REMINDED THOSE ASSEMBLED THAT THE PARTY CONGRESS FULLY

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PAGE 04       HARARE 07163 02 OF 03 201213Z

BACKED THE FAST-TRACK RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM. THE DANISH

AMBASSADOR SAID, “IT MAY BE TOO LATE FOR US. THE

TAXPAYERS AND THE POLITICIANS HAVE HEARD THE RHETORIC,”

AND WILL NOT HELP THE CURRENT ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT.

ANGELO’S FINAL COMMENT BACKPEDALED FROM HIS EARLIER

ATTEMPT TO SPIN SOME OPTIMISM, “I DIDN’T SAY THAT THERE

WAS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL; I SAID THAT WE WERE

IN A TUNNEL…”

¶7. COMMENT: WE ARE PREPARED TO FOLLOW THE MALLOCH-

BROWN INITIATIVE AS FAR AS IT GOES. THAT SAID, WE

DETECT A SHIFT IN GOAL POSTS MORE THAN ATTITUDES OR

BEHAVIOR HERE. OUR CONCERN ABOUT RULE OF LAW IS NO

LONGER FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON LAND. WE MUST LOOK AT

VIOLENCE IN THE MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION AND THAT

LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE JANUARY 13-14 BIKITA BY-ELECTION,

THE GOVERNMENT’S PROBABLY UNCONSTITUTIONAL INVALIDATION

OF THE ELECTORAL CHALLENGES BY PRESIDENTIAL DECREE, THE

THREATS ON THE JUDICIARY FROM ALL SIDES, AND THE

PRESIDENT’S RACE-BAITING AND IGNORING ORDERS FROM THE

HIGH AND SUPREME COURTS. THE BREAKDOWN IN RESPECT FOR

LAW AND ORDER IS GETTING VERY SERIOUS AND MAY WELL

CONFIDENTIAL

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VCE-00   NSAE-00 OIC-02   SS-00   STR-00   DSCC-00 PRM-02

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——————ADC6D7 201213Z /38

P 201212Z DEC 00

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7885

INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 007163

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND

AFR/SA C. PALMA

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02       HARARE 07163 03 OF 03 201213Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2010

TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR EAID ZI

SUBJECT: UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE

SHIFT IN GOZ ATTITUDE ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING PARTY

CONGRESS

BACKFIRE ON THE GOVERNMENT (ANGELO HIMSELF SAID THAT

SOME OF HIS GOVERNMENT INTERLOCUTORS HAD ACKNOWLEDGED

THIS “PANDORA’S BOX”). WE WILL LOOK FOR SOLID SIGNS OF

A RETURN TO THE RULE OF LAW, NOT ONLY IN BIKITA, BUT

ALSO ON THE FARMS AND AT STATE HOUSE. CABINET’S

REACTION TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN INITIATIVE WILL BE

IMPORTANT, TOO. AT THE MOMENT, AND IN SPITE OF VICTOR

ANGELO’S UNSINKABLE OPTIMISM, THE PROVERBIAL GLASS STILL

APPEARS TO BE HALF-EMPTY TO US. END COMMENT.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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