Dell said West could “use financial incentives” to buy reform

United States ambassador to Zimbabwe Christopher Dell said the shift on the succession debate from Joie Mujuru and Emmerson Mnangagwa to technocrats like Simba Makoni and Gideon Gono was a sign that the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front was becoming increasingly aware of its lack of popular appeal and its need for external support it if was to reverse Zimbabwe’s economic collapse.

He said this after meeting Simba Makoni who said that the ZANU-PF government was gridlocked. As a result the government and the country were adrift with no one in the government making the necessary decisions to reverse failed and failing policies.

Dell seemed excited that the debate about succession had shifted to Makoni and Gono.

He said Makoni, whom he said was linked to Mujuru clan by marriage, was a technocrat with appeal to both the West and average Zimbabweans.

“We regard the fact that succession talk has increasingly shifted from Joyce Mujuru and Emmerson Mnangagwa, ZANU-PF dinosaurs, to these two individuals as a sign that the ruling party is increasingly aware of its lack of popular appeal and its need for external support if it is to reverse the economic collapse,” Dell said.

“This effort to seek more moderate and more acceptable leadership to our mind underscores the degree to which the West can increasingly use financial incentives to leverage real reform here, both economic and democratic.”

Full cable:

Viewing cable 06HARARE1307, AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH ZANU-PF’S MAKONI

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001307

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN

USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E. LOKEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2011

TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR EFIN ZI

SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH ZANU-PF’S MAKONI

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

——-

Summary

——-

¶1. (C) In an October 26 meeting, ZANU-PF Politburo member

Simba Makoni told the Ambassador the ruling party government

is gridlocked and adrift. Makoni professed ignorance of the

details of the succession battle, in which he has been

increasingly mentioned as a contender, but noted Mugabe may

choose to stay in power. On the economic front, Makoni

acknowledged the government,s disastrous economic policies

and said reform would require non-existent political will.

Makoni, who attended the recent American Business Association

of Zimbabwe (ABAZ) conference (septel), agreed with the

Ambassador that the conference and follow-up private sector

activities could help define the reforms needed for economic

recovery, assuming a change of government. End Summary.

—————-

ZANU-PF Gridlock

—————-

¶2. (C) Makoni told the Ambassador that the ZANU-PF

government is gridlocked. As a result the government and the

country are adrift with no one in the GOZ making the

necessary decisions to reverse failed and failing policies.

One result is the dismal economic situation. The GOZ,s

command and control policies were leading to economic

collapse. He noted a UNDP comparative study of governments

that had shown the GOZ engaged in more planning than 90

percent of the sample governments but ranked in the bottom

four percent in terms of effective implementation. &Are we

ready to do anything?8, he asked rhetorically. Noting the

continuing collapse of the economy, he answered himself in

the negative–the political will is lacking. He added that

most Zimbabweans elites think of themselves first, then their

tribes, next their political parties, and last their country.

¶3. (C) The Ambassador queried whether the state of the

economy combined with political paralysis could portend an

end of the regime. Makoni responded that Mbutu had held on

for 15 years as his country collapsed around him. He noted

that despite all the chatter about succession it was entirely

possible that Mugabe could likewise decide to hang on to

power indefinitely. Makoni feigned ignorance of who the main

contenders are in the succession struggle, despite the

increasing number of reports that he is himself a potential

successor.

——————————————— –

ABAZ Conference*Building Blocks for the Future

——————————————— –

¶4. (C) Makoni said that in his opinion nothing particularly

new had come out of the ABAZ conference in October (septel).

The reforms needed were widely known and have been discussed

in other fora. What is needed, he once more noted, is the

political will to implement these solutions. He pointed out

there were only a small number of government officials

present and that those officials who can make economic

decisions did not attend.

¶5. (C) The Ambassador and Makoni agreed, however, that small

meetings building on the conference could be a useful way to

build a consensus on needed reforms to be implemented once

there is a new and receptive government. Participants in

HARARE 00001307 002 OF 002

such small meetings could include mid-level officials who

would be part of the bureaucracy of a new government,

professional economists and academics, a parliamentary

portfolio committee leaders. The Ambassador also noted that

U.S. support of the ABAZ conference and follow-on serves to

demystify the U.S. and demonstrate our potential to play a

constructive role.

——-

Comment

——-

¶6. (C) Makoni, a former Finance Minister, is linked by

marriage to the Mujeru clan. However, he is widely viewed

within ZANU-PF as a technocrat with appeal to both the West

and to average Zimbabweans. In that regard, he is much like

Central Bank head Gideon Gono, whose name has also begun to

be mentioned as a potential successor. We regard the fact

that succession talk has increasingly shifted from Joyce

Mujeru and Emmerson Mnangagwa, ZANU-PF dinosaurs, to these

two individuals as a sign that the ruling party is

increasingly aware of its lack of popular appeal and its need

for external support if it is to reverse the economic

collapse. This effort to seek more moderate and more

acceptable leadership to our mind underscores the degree to

which the West can increasingly use financial incentives to

leverage real reform here, both economic and democratic.

DELL

(61 VIEWS)